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Leaked war scenarios

US war plan: invade Iran via Iraq

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani presented three conflict scenarios in closed meeting with Shiite coalition leaders • American plan reportedly includes ground invasion of southern Iran through Iraqi territory • Baghdad fears country will become battlefield between Washington and Tehran

Siege on Iran

An Iraqi newspaper revealed Tuesday a dramatic account of a closed meeting in which Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani presented alarming scenarios for a possible confrontation between the United States and Iran. According to the report in Al-Mada, al-Sudani told participants in the "Coordination Framework", the coalition of Shiite parties, that he had been shown part of an American war plan presented to President Donald Trump.

The plan, he said, includes a scenario for a ground invasion of southern Iran using Iraqi territory as a transit route. The report is based on anonymous sources close to the Baghdad government, not on an official statement from the prime minister. No official source in Washington or Baghdad has confirmed the existence of the document or its details.

Three scenarios on the table

According to the Al-Mada report, al-Sudani described three possible scenarios to meeting participants:

The American scenario: US ground forces would use Iraqi territory as a platform for an invasion of southern Iran, particularly the oil-rich Khuzestan region bordering Iraq's Basra province.

The Iranian scenario: pressure from Tehran on Baghdad to allow passage of forces or militias loyal to Iran through the Basra area, with the aim of conducting a military move toward Kuwait.

American pressure: a demand from Washington that the Iraqi government act immediately and decisively to dismantle the pro-Iranian militias operating on its soil.

American forces facing Iran
American forces facing Iran (Photo: US Army CENTCOM)

The meeting took place against a backdrop of high military and diplomatic tension between the United States and Iran. Al-Sudani, who is trying to maintain as neutral a position as possible, used the information he presented as a tool to deter militia leaders. During the discussion he confronted senior figures, including Qais al-Khazali of the Asaib Ahl al-Haq leadership, and made clear that Iraqi involvement in a conflict could lead to the country's destruction, and that he would not allow Iraqi territory to become a launch base for attacks.

The remarks come after a phone call al-Sudani held with President Trump last Thursday. During the conversation, according to reports, the Iraqi prime minister emphasized that Baghdad opposes the use of its territory for attacks against neighboring countries.

The credibility of the report is rated as moderate. No official confirmation of the document's existence has been provided, and experts note that the US military maintains contingency plans for a variety of military scenarios. The mere presentation of a scenario to the president does not necessarily indicate immediate operational intent.

It is possible that the leak of the information, or its use by al-Sudani, serves as a political pressure tool: on one hand, to deter Iran and accelerate diplomatic moves; on the other, to restrain the militias inside Iraq. At the same time, President Trump has stated in recent days that renewed fighting with Iran is unlikely in his view, and expressed a preference for an agreement, while emphasizing that the United States maintains full readiness.

The report primarily reflects the deep concern in Iraq's political leadership about the country becoming an arena of confrontation between Washington and Tehran, a scenario Baghdad is making considerable efforts to prevent. Meanwhile, Iran has categorically rejected Trump's claims about the existence of direct or indirect negotiations between the countries.

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