U.S. intelligence has assessed that Saudi Arabia has not ruled out developing nuclear weapons, according to classified documents provided to Congress, U.S. officials told the Washington Post on Friday.
The assessment deepens concerns in Washington, and in Israel, about the civil nuclear cooperation agreement President Donald Trump signed with Riyadh in July. Critics warn the 30-year deal could give the kingdom a path to a bomb and set off a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.
The documents were sent to Congress last month as lawmakers review the agreement. They also included the State Department's assessment, which was more confident in the deal's safeguards and in assurances from the Saudi government. The State Department told the Post that the United States "does not and will not support a Saudi nuclear weapon program." The CIA declined to comment.
The agreement opens the door for American companies to take part in tens of billions of dollars in Saudi nuclear energy projects. The administration argues it will strengthen U.S.-Saudi ties and keep Riyadh from turning to China or Russia for nuclear help.
Two provisions are drawing the most criticism. Saudi uranium enrichment is capped below 5% at first, but that limit can rise to 20% after a further study and written agreement. Twenty percent is a level that can be enriched to weapons grade fairly quickly. The deal also does not require Saudi Arabia to join the IAEA's Additional Protocol, which gives inspectors access to every stage of a country's nuclear fuel cycle and its research facilities. The UAE accepted the protocol in its 2009 agreement with the U.S., which became known as the "gold standard" for such deals.
This week, 20 nonproliferation experts, including former IAEA chief Hans Blix, wrote to Congress warning that without that protocol, it could be difficult to detect whether Saudi Arabia was secretly building weapons at undeclared sites. Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley of Oregon told the Post that the U.S. should not rely on Saudi Arabia's word on a matter this serious.
Riyadh insists its intentions are peaceful. Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said the program will be developed with the highest levels of responsibility and transparency. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, however, said in 2018 that if Iran developed a nuclear bomb, Saudi Arabia would follow suit as soon as possible.
For Israel, the stakes are high. The deal could put enrichment capability in the hands of another regional power while Israel and the U.S. are still at war with Iran over its nuclear program.
Congress has 90 days while in session to review the agreement and could move to block it.
