Netanyahu bloc leads in new poll

Further down the mandate map, the mid-sized parties cluster tightly. Naftali Bennett's "Yachad" and Yair Golan's "Democrats" each win 11 seats. Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu and the Joint List each take 9.

In the chareidi and religious-Zionist sector, Yahadut HaTorah and Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit each receive 8 mandates. Shas, led by Aryeh Deri, and the Religious Zionism-Zehut party of Betzalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin each take 7. Together, the chareidi parties reach 15 seats.

Rounding out the map are Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, and Ofer Winter's "Amcha Yisrael," each crossing the threshold with 5 mandates.

Beyond the seat distribution, the survey examined public opinion on several core issues. On establishing a state commission of inquiry into the events of October 7, a broad consensus emerged: 69% of all respondents support the next government setting one up, with only 15% opposed and 16% expressing no position.

Breakdown by political camp shows 95% of opposition voters backing a state inquiry, while among coalition voters 43% support the move and 31% oppose it.

On limiting the tenure of Israel's prime minister, 65% of respondents favor legislation capping the term, against 19% opposed and 17% undecided. Here too the camps diverge sharply: 87% of opposition voters support term limits, compared with just 36% among coalition voters.

Finally, against the backdrop of reports and denials regarding advance warnings before the October 7 attack, 45% of respondents believe Netanyahu received prior warnings, while 28% believe no such warnings reached him. The breakdown is starkly polarized: 75% of opposition supporters believe warnings were given, compared with only 14% among coalition supporters.

The survey was conducted by HaMadad Institute (Shmuel Rosner, Noah Slepkov) in partnership with Stat-Net (Yosef Maklada), the Sample Project (Dr. Ariel Ayalon), and Askaria (Dudi Dror), with data from Hive and statistical consultation by Prof. David Steinberg. The survey included 1,013 respondents, with a sampling error of 2.5%.

Reservists Party Crashes Below Threshold

One striking finding concerns parties left outside the Knesset. The Reservists-Economic party, led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha, which cleared the threshold in a previous poll with 4 seats, now crashes to just 2.8%, below the minimum required.

The Chareidi Public party receives 1.3%, while Benny Gantz's Blue and White hits a low of 0.9%.

On suitability for prime minister, Eisenkot continues to lead but the gap narrows. Eisenkot receives 44% support as most suitable for the role, compared with 38% who view Netanyahu as best qualified.