Israeli defense officials are closely monitoring developments in Iran following the funeral ceremonies for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, viewing the events as both a demonstration of regime stability and an effort to consolidate the authority of his son and successor, Mojtaba Khamenei.
According to assessments within Israel's security establishment, the funeral served not only as a symbolic national event but also as a political signal intended to legitimize Mojtaba's succession. Officials note that despite reports that Mojtaba Khamenei was seriously wounded during the strike that killed his father and therefore avoided appearing publicly at the funeral, the regime appears determined to present a smooth transition of power.
Israeli intelligence also believes Iran is gradually restoring internet access after wartime restrictions, largely because of economic pressure and demands from businesses. However, security officials say the regime continues to maintain tight control over the streets and public discourse while focusing on rebuilding its military infrastructure and stabilizing an economy that remains under severe international sanctions.
Israel Concerned Over U.S.-Iran Talks
Despite repeated statements by U.S. President Donald Trump that Iran will never be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons, Israeli defense officials remain concerned that Jerusalem has been largely excluded from the current diplomatic process.
Officials fear that Washington and Tehran could reach understandings or agreements without meaningful Israeli participation, potentially creating strategic surprises for Israel.
The Israel Defense Forces continue preparing for the possibility that fighting with Iran could resume.
According to the assessment, the military is updating operational plans on a weekly basis under the direction of IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir. Military Intelligence is simultaneously expanding its target bank while revalidating existing targets should rapid military action become necessary.
Israeli officials say any concrete intelligence indicating preparations for attacks against Israel's civilian population could trigger immediate military operations.
Iran Seeking Revenge
While Israeli officials believe the recent conflict inflicted significant damage on Iran, they stress that neither the Islamic Republic nor the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is close to collapse.
Instead, they assess that Tehran has already entered an active reconstruction phase.
A senior defense official also warned that Mojtaba Khamenei is believed to be deeply motivated by revenge following his father's death. According to the assessment, this desire is reinforced by IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi, who is viewed as encouraging a more confrontational approach toward Israel.
Israeli officials also warned that if Hezbollah launches attacks against Israel's civilian population, the IDF is expected to respond by striking targets in Beirut's Dahieh district.
Such a scenario, they say, would once again force Tehran to decide whether to intervene directly against Israel or allow its Lebanese proxy to absorb the consequences alone.
Israeli defense officials therefore believe that although the current front remains relatively quiet, Iran's military recovery and its leadership's desire for retaliation make the possibility of renewed confrontation a realistic scenario that the IDF continues to prepare for.
