U.S. intelligence agencies assess that Iran's new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, is significantly more interested in developing nuclear weapons than his father and predecessor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, according to officials briefed on the intelligence and reported by the New York Times on July 24.
For decades, U.S. officials maintained that while Iran sought the capability to build a nuclear bomb, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's long-standing religious prohibition, or fatwa, against nuclear weapons represented a genuine obstacle to crossing that final threshold. Many American officials believed Khamenei's reluctance was sincere, even as they asserted Iran wanted the technical capability.
Mojtaba Khamenei, who assumed power after his father was killed in an Israeli airstrike aided by U.S. intelligence on February 28, has never publicly called for Iran to develop nuclear weapons. However, U.S. intelligence believes that, unlike his father, he and members of Iran's hard-line regime that emerged in recent months have ambitions to acquire nuclear weapons.
According to the assessment, Mojtaba does not share his father's hesitation and seeks to obtain nuclear weapons. Toward the end of the Biden administration, reports emerged that Iran was seeking to acquire an "asset" in the form of a bomb—one that would be difficult to launch on a missile but could still provide a degree of deterrence. But Khamenei's son, according to the assessment, sees less value in such a weapon and instead seeks a warhead that could eventually be miniaturized and mounted on a missile.
U.S. officials cautioned that much of the intelligence on Mojtaba's views predates the current conflict. The new supreme leader was seriously injured during the opening phase of the conflict and has since kept a low public profile, limiting communications and public appearances out of concern he could become the target of another airstrike.
Iran has taken some steps to protect its nuclear assets—such as relocating centrifuges to underground facilities at Mount Kolang in central Iran—amid the war in December of last year and the recent conflict.
Officials assess that Mojtaba Khamenei remains in control of Iran's government, but they say he does not possess the same level of authority and influence held by his father, who governed the country for more than 36 years.
