Israel's National Security Council published a wide-ranging threat review on Sunday morning warning that the combination of the ongoing war and the approaching third anniversary of the October 7 massacre has produced a sharp rise in the motivation of terrorist groups to strike Israelis and Jews around the world.
Iran sits at the center of the assessment, which describes it as the main driver of global terrorism. The NSC points to Tehran's continued determination to avenge the damage it has absorbed, and to its use of criminal networks and proxy operatives to target Israeli diplomatic missions and security personnel abroad. Hezbollah, still seeking to avenge the killing of its senior commanders, is described as a particularly serious threat.
The review also flags a shift in Hamas activity. The group, whose operations have until now been concentrated in the local arena, is investing heavily in building terrorist infrastructure on European soil. The stated goal, according to the NSC, is to carry out showcase attacks against Jewish targets in Western countries as part of its propaganda and revenge campaign.
Twenty-five Israelis and Jews have been murdered in attacks worldwide since the war began, the assessment says.
The largest single source of danger comes from individuals acting on their own, radicalized by extremist ideology circulating on social media. That threat is diffuse and hard to intercept, and it is aimed at soft targets: kosher restaurants, Chabad houses and places where crowds gather. ISIS and al-Qaeda continue to issue explicit calls to attack Jews in European capitals and in the United States, while the Houthis are urging violence against Israelis traveling in East Africa and Somaliland.
On travel, the NSC warns that countries bordering Iran remain exposed both to Iranian infrastructure operating on their territory and to simple geographic proximity, with Azerbaijan, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates singled out.
Jordan, Qatar, Somaliland and Egypt, including the Sinai Peninsula, carry a Level 4 warning, the highest, meaning Israelis should avoid staying in them altogether. Travelers are also urged to avoid connecting flights and stopovers in Level 4 countries where possible, and leaving the terminal in those countries is prohibited.
Entry to Iraq, including the Kurdistan Region, as well as Yemen, Iran, Syria and Lebanon remains illegal for Israeli citizens under the Anti-Infiltration Law, including for dual nationals, and the NSC describes travel there as a genuine danger to life. Saudi Arabia is restricted by law, and Israelis are advised to stay out of Bangladesh, Somalia, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Libya and Algeria.
