Israeli Election Polls: Winter's Party Crosses Threshold

Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party continues to dominate Israel's political landscape with 24 Knesset seats, according to a new Midgam poll broadcast Monday evening on Channel 12 News. The survey tested a scenario in which Ofer Winter establishes a new political party and runs in the next election, an announcement he is expected to make this evening.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party recorded a significant decline in the poll, standing at just 21 seats. The figures reveal a three-seat gap between the two leading parties, with Eisenkot maintaining a clear advantage over the ruling party.

The poll's most striking finding is the entry of a new party led by Ofer Winter, which secured 4 seats and crossed the 3.25% electoral threshold required for Knesset representation. Winter's entrance into the political arena reshapes the distribution of power and affects the balance between the political blocs.

Naftali Bennett's Yachad party continues its recovery, rising to 16 seats. Yair Golan's Democrats party maintains stability with 11 seats, while Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beiteinu weakens to 9 seats.

Among the ultra-Orthodox parties, United Torah Judaism continues to show stability in polling with 8 seats. Shas, led by Aryeh Deri, remains unchanged from the previous poll at 7 seats.

Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit party receives 9 seats. The Arab Joint List (Hadash-Ta'al-Balad) gets 7 seats, while Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, wins 4 seats.

Several parties remain below the electoral threshold: the Zionist Home-Reservists list led by Chili Tropper and Yoaz Hendel, Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism party, Gilad Erdan's Unity Party, Balad, and Benny Gantz's Blue and White.

According to the bloc breakdown, a Netanyahu-led coalition would command only 49 seats. The anti-Netanyahu bloc reaches 60 seats, while the Arab parties hold 11 seats.