Iran Nuclear Program: Expert Warns of Alarming Developments

Rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and this week's exchange of strikes between Washington and Tehran have refocused attention on what Israeli defense officials consider their most persistent long-term concern: the quiet advancement of Iran's nuclear program, according to Danny Citrinowicz, a senior researcher on Iran and the Shiite Axis at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies.

Citrinowicz, a 25-year veteran of Israeli military intelligence who previously headed the Iran branch of its Research and Analysis Division, said in an interview on Israeli radio that satellite imagery shows Iran using the current period of regional turmoil to press ahead with its nuclear ambitions.

"Satellite imagery unequivocally shows that Iran is preparing something, certainly in the context of enrichment," Citrinowicz said.

Nuclear reactor being transported in the US (Photo: The United States Department of Defense)

Asked whether the activity was visible through public satellite documentation, Citrinowicz said the imagery points to construction of new infrastructure built to withstand attack far more effectively than Iran's pre-war facilities. "When you look at the actions Iran is taking in this area, it is a new enrichment facility that Iran has reported on, which may be harder to strike than the facility in Fordow," he said.

Nuclear facility in Iran (Photo: RJC Twitter page))

His assessment tracks with a string of independent satellite analyses published in recent months. The Institute for Science and International Security has reported ongoing construction at a large underground complex near Natanz known as Pickaxe Mountain, built into a mountain roughly 650 meters taller than the one that shielded Fordow, which was struck by American bunker-buster bombs last year. The Center for Strategic and International Studies has separately reported signs of activity at the site, while CNN reported this month that new satellite imagery shows Iran may be attempting to rebuild suspected nuclear facilities, raising questions about whether Tehran has violated the memorandum of understanding it signed with Washington.

Defense Minister Israel Katz, IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Photo: Flash90/flash90)

Citrinowicz said the greater danger lies less in the construction itself than in the absence of any outside monitoring of what is happening inside it. "Iran is doing things there, and it is a disturbing event because we have no oversight," he said. "We have been a year without supervision in a situation where the International Atomic Energy Agency is not there. We need to be concerned. What matters is the nuclear issue, and that is where the focus must remain at all times."

The IAEA has been unable to access several of Iran's most sensitive nuclear sites since the strikes last year, and Iran has continued to insist its nuclear program serves civilian purposes only.

Pressed on whether the imagery proves Iran has resumed enrichment to weapons-grade levels, Citrinowicz stopped short of that conclusion but said the trend line alone warranted sustained attention. "The photographs show ongoing work being conducted in the area," he said. "We must remain focused on what is being done in the Iranian nuclear program. What is happening according to the satellite imagery involves developments that should trouble us deeply."