Leaked Hamas documents reveal how Israel’s 2021 Gaza misstep led to October 7 attack

Recently uncovered documents from Gaza have revealed a catastrophic miscalculation by Israeli leadership following the 2021 conflict with Hamas, one that ultimately paved the way for the deadly October 7, 2023 massacre. According to a Channel 12 report, internal communications between top Hamas leaders show the terror group perceived the 2021 Operation Guardian of the Walls not as a setback, but as a strategic victory, a reality Israeli officials failed to grasp at the time.

In the immediate aftermath of the 11-day conflict, then-Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu proclaimed the operation an “extraordinary success,” declaring that Hamas had been seriously weakened and that Israeli deterrence had been re-established. However, letters exchanged between Hamas’s Gaza leader Yahya Sinwar and the group’s political chief Ismail Haniyeh told a dramatically different story, one of deception, calculated maneuvering, and preparation for a much larger assault.

The documents reveal that Sinwar urged Hamas to promote a long-term ceasefire, or “hudna,” not as a step toward peace, but as a ruse designed to isolate Israel internationally and destabilize it domestically. “It is likely that this move, which would be acceptable to most countries in the world, would not be acceptable to the occupation [Israel] and would therefore increase their isolation and disconnection from them,” Sinwar wrote. Haniyeh, in turn, lauded Sinwar’s strategy as a clear victory, celebrating the global recognition of Hamas’s military capabilities.

Despite firing over 4,000 rockets into Israel during the 2021 conflict, killing a dozen civilians and one soldier, Hamas viewed its ability to endure Israel’s counterstrikes and maintain its tunnel infrastructure as proof of its growing resilience. While Israeli military officials claimed significant damage to Hamas’s tunnel network, the newly surfaced documents show that senior Hamas figures privately told Hezbollah and Iranian leaders that the damage was minimal and quickly repairable.

These revelations underscore how Hamas’s campaign of deception misled Israeli intelligence into believing the group was not preparing for renewed hostilities. The result was the horrific events of October 7, 2023, when Hamas operatives crossed into Israel, slaughtering approximately 1,200 people, most of them civilians, and abducting 251 hostages.

Although both Sinwar and Haniyeh have since been killed by Israeli forces, the uncovered correspondence serves as a grim reminder: Hamas’s ultimate objective was never peace, but the strategic timing of its deadliest attack.