Chaos and turmoil
A Nation in Systemic Collapse - Status Report on Iran
An in-depth overview of Iran’s current state amid escalating strikes: Revolutionary Guards’ top leadership wiped out, critical nuclear sites crippled, and Israel controlling airspace. The regime faces severe internal chaos as Khamenei’s inner circle is decimated, raising questions about Iran’s command, control, and future stability.
Let’s break down the state of national systems, what’s been hit, and what’s critical and still functioning.
Revolutionary Guards - The entire senior leadership has been eliminated, with a focus on the top brass of the Air Force and Space Division (including ballistic missiles). The Chief of Staff appointed after the assassination of the previous Chief of Staff was also eliminated this morning. This severely challenges command and control and the ability to execute military operations. No curfew or martial law has been declared so far.
Basij (civilian force for maintaining public order and preventing uprisings) - Largely unaffected so far.
Nuclear Facilities - Most have been attacked and rendered inoperable. The Fordo facility, located deep underground, has not yet been significantly damaged. Essentially, they’re waiting for American bombers.
Internet - Bandwidth has been restricted. It takes a long time to load videos and heavy content. It’s unclear how much external content is reaching Iran, which still gives the regime some control. Additionally, WhatsApp, Telegram, and other networks have been blocked, accessible only via VPN (which many are obviously using), but the low bandwidth makes it challenging. Starlink units have not yet reached the country.
Media - A symbol of the regime’s lies. The state television building was bombed yesterday, but broadcasts continue from other branches, and Telegram is working overtime.
Transportation - The Tehran metro has been halted, and there are massive traffic jams at the city’s exits.
Banks - Currently functioning, except for the main Revolutionary Guards bank, which was hit by a cyberattack this morning.
Stock Exchange - Shut down, likely to prevent a collapse.
Airspace - Under complete Israeli control. Occasionally, flights from China and Russia land, and Israel is not intercepting them. Additionally, civilian flights (likely carrying senior officials) depart from time to time.
Fuel - Hard to obtain, with long lines at gas stations.
Electricity and Water - Currently functioning.
Healthcare and Hospitals - Currently operational. Yesterday, a military facility near a hospital was bombed, causing minor damage to the hospital, but overall, hospitals remain active.
Parliament - Currently functioning.
Regime Symbols - Most regime symbols have not been hit, except for the state television (and, of course, all the strikes, especially on the Revolutionary Guards, represent a severe blow to the regime’s image).
Khamenei, the Supreme Leader - Various rumors about his deteriorating mental state. His entire inner circle and associates have been eliminated. It’s said that Revolutionary Guards commanders are isolating him to avoid further damaging his condition, and in a sense, responsibility for managing the war has been taken from him to make rational decisions. His son, Mojtaba, who is seen as his successor, is currently alive.