Who is Mohammed Sinwar? The IDF's target in today's strike 

Mohammed Sinwar, often referred to as "the Shadow" by Israeli security officials, has emerged as a pivotal figure in Hamas’s leadership following the death of his older brother, Yahya Sinwar, in an Israeli raid in October 2024. As the de facto head of Hamas’s military wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, Mohammed has demonstrated cunning, ruthlessness, and strategic acumen, positioning himself as a formidable adversary in the ongoing conflict with Israel. Recent Israeli airstrikes in Khan Younis, aimed at eliminating him, have left his condition unknown, with no confirmation yet on whether he survived. This profile delves into Mohammed Sinwar’s background, rise within Hamas, leadership style, and his critical role in rebuilding the organization amidst intense Israeli military pressure.

Early Life and Background

Born in 1975 in a refugee camp in Khan Younis, southern Gaza, Mohammed Sinwar grew up in the shadow of his older brother Yahya, who was more than a decade his senior. From a young age, Mohammed was immersed in Hamas’s ideology and operations, joining the group in his youth. Unlike Yahya, who spent decades in Israeli prisons before his release in a 2011 hostage swap, Mohammed maintained a lower profile, earning the nickname "the Shadow" for his elusive nature. His early exposure to Hamas’s founding figures, including Mohammed Deif, Yahya Ayyash, Salah Shahadeh, and Imad al-Arabid, shaped his understanding of the group’s military and political evolution over the past three decades.

Mohammed’s deep ties to Khan Younis, a stronghold of Hamas activity, positioned him as a key player in the region. He served as the commander of the Khan Younis Brigade, a senior role within Hamas’s military structure, and his influence persisted even after he moved to higher leadership positions. His loyalty to Mohammed Deif, the former head of the Qassam Brigades, was unwavering, and he often acted as Deif’s representative on the ground, communicating with fighters and commanders when Deif was unavailable.

Rise to Prominence

Mohammed Sinwar’s ascent within Hamas was marked by his involvement in nearly every significant milestone of the group’s military buildup over the past 25 years. Described by military sources as more ruthless and cunning than his brother Yahya, Mohammed played a critical role in planning and executing high-profile operations, including the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, known as "Aqsa Flood." Reports suggest he was one of the architects of this assault, which killed over 1,200 Israelis and led to the abduction of more than 250 hostages.

His strategic brilliance extends beyond direct military action. Mohammed demonstrated an ability to align disparate groups with Hamas’s interests, notably enlisting the Durmush clan, a violent smuggling network, to kidnap Israeli soldier Gilad Schalit in 2006. He also forged ties with the Sinai-based Ansar Bait al-Maqdis group, convincing them to pledge allegiance to ISIS and establish its Sinai Province. In exchange, he provided weapons and training, ensuring arms shipments to Gaza reached their destination. These alliances highlight his understanding of combat doctrines, operational leadership, and regional dynamics.

Following the reported death of Mohammed Deif in an Israeli airstrike in July 2024, Mohammed Sinwar assumed de facto leadership of the Qassam Brigades, operating alongside a small council of top commanders. Hamas has not formally confirmed Deif’s death, nor has it officially appointed Mohammed as military chief, reflecting the group’s secretive and adaptive leadership structure.

Leadership Style and Reputation

Israeli security officials describe Mohammed Sinwar as an "arch-terrorist" whose brutality surpasses even that of his brother Yahya. A former official recounted how Mohammed personally conducted interrogations, torturing and killing Palestinians suspected of collaborating with Israel to gain insights into IDF and Shin Bet operations. His ability to identify aircraft by their sounds and his deep understanding of Israeli covert tactics make him a uniquely dangerous adversary.

Mohammed’s loyalty to Deif and his ability to wield authority without undermining his superiors amplified his influence within Hamas. As Deif’s representative, he commanded respect from brigade and battalion leaders, with every decision backed by Deif’s authority. His role as commander of the Khan Younis Brigade further solidified his reputation as a hands-on leader who shaped Hamas’s military strategy in southern Gaza.

Unlike Yahya, who gained prominence through his imprisonment and public persona, Mohammed prefers to operate behind the scenes, pulling strings while avoiding the spotlight. Israeli assessments suggest he was responsible for Yahya’s security, a task requiring immense vigilance given Israel’s relentless pursuit of Hamas leaders. His strategic input likely influenced Yahya’s hardline stance on issues like the Philadelphi Corridor, a critical smuggling route along Gaza’s border with Egypt.

Role in Hostage Negotiations

Mohammed Sinwar’s influence extends to Hamas’s negotiations with Israel, particularly regarding hostage releases. Sources close to the talks describe him as a deliberate obstructer, misleading mediators, stonewalling requests for hostage lists, and withdrawing from agreements. His deep understanding of Gaza’s operational realities allows him to anticipate the consequences of concessions, making him a formidable negotiator. Some speculate he advises on which prisoners Hamas should demand in exchange for hostages, prioritizing figures like Hassan Salameh, a close ally.

His role in negotiations underscores his strategic importance to Hamas. A former security official suggested that Mohammed’s cunning surpasses Yahya’s, enabling him to navigate complex diplomatic and military challenges while maintaining Hamas’s leverage.

Rebuilding Hamas Amidst Conflict

Since Yahya’s death in October 2024, Mohammed Sinwar has spearheaded Hamas’s efforts to rebuild after Israel’s 15-month military campaign, which killed over 17,000 operatives. Operating within a governing council designed to protect Hamas’s leadership from targeted strikes, Mohammed has focused on recruiting new fighters and reinforcing the group’s control over Gaza. Reports indicate he has exploited the region’s humanitarian crisis, offering food and medicine to enlist thousands of recruits and attending funerals to win over grieving families.

Amir Avivi, a retired Israeli brigadier general, warned that “the pace at which Hamas is rebuilding itself is higher than the pace that the IDF is eradicating them,” crediting Mohammed’s leadership for this resilience. The U.S. has echoed these concerns, noting Hamas’s ability to replace lost fighters under Mohammed’s direction. A public hostage exchange in Gaza City, where Hamas fighters paraded Israeli captives, underscored the group’s defiance and Mohammed’s role in its revival.

His Now Uncertain Fate:

Earlier today, the IDF conducted concentrated airstrikes in Khan Younis targeting Mohammed Sinwar, reflecting Israel’s determination to neutralize him. His condition remains unknown, with no confirmation from Hamas or Israeli authorities on whether he was killed or injured in the strike. The lack of clarity mirrors earlier uncertainty surrounding Yahya Sinwar’s fate before his death was confirmed. Given Mohammed’s elusive nature and Hamas’s secretive operations, verifying his status may take time.

Mohammed Sinwar’s rise to prominence illustrates Hamas’s ability to adapt and endure despite significant losses. His deep knowledge of Israeli tactics, strategic alliances, and ruthless leadership have made him a central figure in the group’s military and political spheres. Whether he survives the recent airstrikes or not, his influence has already reshaped Hamas’s trajectory, ensuring its resilience in the face of Israel’s campaign.