Next October 7 will come from Negev, security chief warns

An unprecedented emergency report by the Rifman Institute and former senior security officials warns of explosive drones, 130,000 illegal weapons, Iranian espionage around Nevatim air base, and a real threat to neutralise the IDF's fighter jets at the height of battle. Chagai Reznik issued a furious warning on Kikar Hashabat's 'Kippot Shchorot' programme: "The writing is on the wall, Iran is identifying the sovereignty vacuum. We must immediately declare a 'Nevatim envelope.'"

A dramatic and disturbing alarm was sounded on the 'Kippot Shchorot' programme, presented by Yossi Sergobsky: Chagai Reznik, head of the Rifman Institute for Negev Development (and former director-general of the Ministry of Construction and Housing), warned of a terrifying security scenario in the heart of the Negev, presenting findings from a special emergency report compiled with the guidance of former senior security officials.

"I'm announcing here: the next October 7 will come from the Negev," Reznik warned forcefully. "At the end of the day, we have to say: a large part of Bedouin society is law-abiding, but more and more Palestinian children are entering through the borders, and tens of thousands of illegal weapons have already penetrated the area. From the Jordanian and Egyptian borders, drones weighing 80 kilograms are operating, carrying magazines and rifles."

Senior security officials warn: F-35 jets under threat

Reznik's remarks are based on a severe and unprecedented report by the Rifman Institute, signed by a series of former senior security officials: Ilan Lavia (former head of the Shin Bet's Southern District), retired Superintendent Moti Edrei (former deputy commander of the Southern District Police), retired Deputy Superintendent Ilan Borda (former head of the Prison Service intelligence division), and Brigadier General (res.) Atilla Peres (former head of the Civil Administration).

The report warns that Israel's most sensitive strategic assets, led by Nevatim air base (home to the F-35 jets, the heavy transport array and the prime minister's aircraft), alongside the Hatzrim, Tze'elim and Ramat Hovav bases, are surrounded by a civilian area suffering from a severe and dangerous "absence of sovereignty".

The disturbing data from the report:

Islands without sovereignty and massive weapons leakage: According to police estimates, approximately 130,000 illegal weapons and combat equipment are scattered across the Negev. A significant portion was stolen from IDF bases (approximately 14 significant break-ins were reported in which hundreds of thousands of bullets and dozens of weapons were stolen). In the criminal market, rental prices stand at approximately 500 shekels per day for an M-16 rifle and approximately 1,000 shekels for a machine gun, and in 2025 alone, 119 explosive devices were seized in the sector.
The backyard of Iranian intelligence: In recent years, serious espionage affairs have been exposed in which Israelis were recruited by Iranian intelligence to photograph sensitive bases, primarily Nevatim. Among the prominent cases cited was the arrest of Tehani Abu Samhan, a teacher from the Pezurat Abu Qweider settlement adjacent to the base fence, who was directly operated to document fighter jet takeoffs in real time.
Fire towards runways and drone danger: The State Comptroller's report documents a serious increase in shooting incidents in direct proximity to Nevatim, including a case in which an aircraft wing was hit by fire that spilled over from the adjacent settlement. Alongside this, drone penetration into the base area is defined as a technological danger with severe strategic implications.
Collapse of enforcement systems: Police stations in Segev Shalom, Ar'ara and Rahat lack critical positions for officers and investigators, while the Ministerial Committee for Negev Development has not convened for two years to discuss the sovereignty issue.

The reference scenario: paralysis of air capabilities at the height of battle

The central scenario outlined in the report points to a real danger of paralysing the air force during a multi-arena war: parallel to missile barrages from Iran, violent disturbances will be exploited to block the main traffic routes (roads 25, 31 and 80) with the aim of cutting off the base from ground reinforcement. Simultaneously, armed cells will exploit the topographical proximity to the fence to carry out precise fire and operate explosive drones towards the parked fighter jet, to preventing takeoffs and neutralise the IDF's strike capabilities.

"The writing is screaming from the wall in the very heart of the Negev," Reznik exclaimed in the studio. "Iran doesn't need an army in the Negev; it's identifying the sovereignty vacuum, flooding the area with illegal weapons and operating elements from within the settlements. One minister, however talented, won't be able to deal with this alone. We must immediately declare a 'Nevatim envelope' as a statutory national security area with enhanced enforcement powers similar to the Gaza envelope, before we wake up to a national disaster."