Pollster: Right bloc headed for 61–64 seat victory in April

With just over a week until Israelis head to the polls, political analyst and pollster Shlomo Filber has published a sweeping assessment predicting a clear victory for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition. In an analysis released this week, Filber challenges the narrative of recent surveys and projects the right-wing bloc is on track for a decisive win in the upcoming election.

According to Filber, some 400,000 citizens who voted Likud in the 2022 election have not abandoned the right-wing camp at all. He argues they are expected to turn out in force on election day, where, as he puts it, "the left's observers will meet them in person."

The polling war and Likud's presentation

Filber takes aim at recent surveys showing Likud at a historic low of 18 seats, numbers last seen immediately after the October 7 attacks. He contends this represents a deliberate trend designed to create an artificial gap in favor of the Yesh Atid party, with the aim of crowning it in the public consciousness as the largest party.

Still, he emphasizes that Likud's supreme and most critical test will be its organizational capacity to replicate the high turnout rates of 2022. Without full mobilization on the ground, the party will struggle to cross the 30-seat threshold, according to the analysis.

In the center bloc and among new parties, Filber warns against writing off Blue and White prematurely. He identifies Benny Gantz's support base as a conservative and frustrated electorate still deliberating, but notes the party is gaining strength and has twice managed to surprise by crossing the electoral threshold.

The new parties led by Ofer Winter and Yaron Zelekha, which enjoyed brief moments of grace above the threshold this week, face an existential threat. Their greatest and most brutal battle still lies ahead, as in the final stretch they will need to survive the "big party" campaign and the vote-siphoning that Likud and Yesh Atid will lead within their respective blocs.

Filber reveals that the massive outdoor advertising of smaller parties, such as Achi, Noam and lists in the chareidi public, is expected to come down by midweek. This move is designed to make way for the powerful campaigns of the major parties heading into the finish line, and this is precisely the timing when formal discussions will begin about smaller lists withdrawing to prevent wasted votes for the bloc.

Meanwhile, the chareidi parties are mounting a supreme effort to maximize turnout among their constituencies. Filber notes that while chareidi representatives are fighting for every vote to reach an achievement of over 18 seats, they have already begun internal battles over the division of spoils and positions, spoils they will only be able to realize under a distinctly right-wing government.

Summing up his analysis, Filber examines the mood in the center-left bloc and argues that understanding has seeped in deeply there: no one is talking anymore about a decisive victory and forming a broad government. The glass ceiling and maximum aspiration of opposition leaders now is to reach a political stalemate, with the aim of trying to engineer a tactical takeover of the Knesset under the auspices of Arab party support, in an attempt to buy time before dragging the country into another election round.

In light of all these factors, Filber remains firm in his unequivocal forecast: the right-wing bloc will win the upcoming election and form a government resting on a majority of 61 to 64 seats, with the final result dependent primarily on turnout rates among the chareidi public and the Arab sector.