Israel's caretaker government could face a decision on Iran in the week between the October 27 Knesset election and the November 3 U.S. midterm elections, according to a scenario posted Thursday by the Hebrew-language X account Intelli Times.
The post, which did not cite sources, said that once election results come in on the night of October 27 and Israel turns to forming a new government, the outgoing government would have a green light until November 3 to decide on action in Iran. It listed possible triggers, including Iranian nuclear transfers, a surprise attack, or an Iranian terror attack abroad. The post said the United States would join several days later.
The scenario is speculative, but its timing matches recent reporting on coordinated planning in Washington and Jerusalem.
The New York Times reported this week that the United States and Israel have drawn up plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the U.S. midterms. Targets would likely include Iran's energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile and drone arsenals. Some planners believe a three-day campaign could be enough to change Iran's negotiating position.
President Donald Trump pledged on October 8 not to attack Iran before Americans vote on November 3. Israel Hayom reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pushed earlier this month to resume strikes, but the operation was postponed mainly because of Trump's opposition to renewed hostilities before the midterms.
Assessments differ on whether a caretaker government could take such a step. The New York Times cited experts who said that if Netanyahu loses the election and serves as caretaker, he would find it difficult to launch a war. Israel Hayom reported that security officials are concerned he could launch a major operation even after losing, while remaining in office during coalition negotiations.
U.S. forces are still building up in the region. American officials told the Times that the full deployment, including three aircraft carriers, thousands of Marines, fighter jets and special operations forces, will not be in place until early November. The U.S. military also prefers to operate under cover of darkness, and there will be more hours of darkness over Iran at the start of next month.
Israeli officials have signaled a preference to wait until after the vote. The Jerusalem Post reported that Jerusalem told Washington it would prefer military action to begin after October 27, amid concerns in Likud that missile fire and casualties in the final days of the campaign would shift the public agenda.
Iran has threatened a broad response to any renewed attack. U.S. assessments cited by the Jerusalem Post warn that new strikes could prompt Iran to launch hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel.
