Oded Eilam, former head of the Mossad's Counterterrorism Division, is offering a sobering reality check amid optimistic reports of the Iranian regime's imminent downfall. Currently a researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs and Security, Eilam warns that the road to victory will be long and requires strategic patience.
Key Insights: Stability vs. Decay
Despite severe military and economic blows, Eilam argues the regime remains functionally stable in the short term.
- The "Fake" of External Uprisings: Eilam dismisses claims that external forces can spark a mass revolution. "There is no scenario where you bring masses to the streets from the outside; that is complete fake news."
- The "Slow Bleed" Strategy: Contrary to hopes for a quick collapse, Eilam describes the process as a "slow bleeding to death" rather than a sudden structural failure. This aligns with Mossad assessments that regime change could take months or even a year.
- Regime Resilience: Internal suppression mechanisms remain effective, and the IRGC has maintained cohesion. The recent appointment of veteran hardliner Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr to the SNSC is seen as a move to tighten the regime's ranks.
The "Trump Gap": Two Weeks vs. One Year
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Eilam highlights a potential friction point between Israeli and American strategic goals:
- Israel’s Goal: Continuous, prolonged pressure until the regime is fundamentally changed or dismantled.
- The Trump Factor: Eilam warns that President Trump may seek a much faster exit. "Trump might close the deal within two weeks, sooner than Israel would prefer."
- Economic Stakes: With global oil prices surging and gold markets fluctuating, the pressure for a swift resolution is mounting in Washington.
Intelligence Successes and the Northern Front
While cautious about the timeline, Eilam praised the "impressive results" of Israeli intelligence.
- Mossad Penetration: The agency has successfully infiltrated deep into Iranian systems, evidenced by precision strikes and recent high-profile psychological operations, such as the direct-to-civilian Persian campaign for intelligence leads.
- Hezbollah’s Decline: In the north, Hezbollah is being "gradually weakened." While the group has suffered massive infrastructure and personnel losses, Eilam warns that they still retain significant capabilities.
