The 2026 typhoon season in the northwest Pacific Ocean is shaping up to be exceptionally severe and may rank among the most active seasons ever recorded, according to a forecast released by British weather prediction firm Tropical Storm Risk.
The forecast suggests typhoon activity this season could reach approximately 60% above the historical average. Meteorologists are projecting the formation of 28 tropical storms, 20 typhoons, and 13 super typhoons — figures that could place 2026 among the stormiest years the region has experienced.
Several climate factors are driving the unusual forecast, including a strengthening El Niño phenomenon, weakening trade winds over the northwest Pacific Ocean, and above-average sea surface temperatures. This combination provides tropical storms with significantly more energy and increases the likelihood of powerful systems developing.
The concerns are already proving well-founded. Typhoon Dolphin, considered the strongest storm to hit China this year, made landfall Sunday in Taizhou city in Zhejiang province, bringing winds of up to 151 kilometers per hour. The storm caused widespread disruption across eastern China, with Shanghai canceling hundreds of flights at both of the city's airports.
According to data from the Shanghai Airport Authority, more than 900 flights were canceled on Monday — roughly 40% of scheduled operations — following the cancellation of approximately 1,300 additional flights the previous day. Authorities preemptively evacuated at least 760,000 residents from various areas in eastern China, while streets in Shanghai flooded due to heavy rainfall.
Dolphin is expected to continue moving inland toward Hubei and Henan provinces, carrying substantial moisture northward. Beijing is preparing for significant rainfall between Tuesday and Thursday, along with warnings of flash flooding and landslides.
The typhoon's effects were also felt in Hong Kong, where temperatures reached 36.9 degrees Celsius on Sunday — the hottest day recorded in the city since measurements began in 1884. According to assessments, the airflow patterns created around Dolphin contributed to the exceptional heat wave.
Meanwhile, Hawaii has also entered a state of alert. A low-pressure area designated Invest 93C is located approximately 1,100 miles southeast of the Big Island and could develop later this week into Tropical Storm Lalah. Meteorological models indicate the possibility that the system will organize and approach the Hawaiian Islands over the weekend, though its track and intensity remain uncertain.
Scenarios range from a path passing north of the islands to a direct strike, while intensity estimates vary from tropical storm to hurricane strength. Experts warn that El Niño and the warm waters in the central Pacific could make the entire season particularly active and dangerous — and Lalah may be only the beginning of a turbulent period.
