Secular Jews - a Minority: Israel 2048 Demographic Forecast revealed

A new government report forecasts dramatic demographic changes in Israel by 2048, with the ultra Orthodox population nearly doubling, secular Israelis shrinking to a minority, and national systems bracing for strain across education, infrastructure, health, and labor.

Israel is undergoing a profound demographic transformation that will shape its social, economic, and political future. According to the newly released 'Israel Reserves 2024' report, prepared by the Central Bureau of Statistics in collaboration with the Prime Minister’s Office, the country’s population is projected to reach approximately 19.8 million by 2048 — nearly double today’s figure. This surge is driven primarily by high birth rates in the ultra Orthodox and Arab communities, but also by modest increases among other sectors.

The report outlines key challenges: expanding educational infrastructure for growing religious and Arab populations, developing public transportation in high growth areas, adapting healthcare for an aging society, and integrating underrepresented populations into the workforce. With Haredim (ultra Orthodox Jews) expected to grow from 13 percent today to 24 percent in 2048, and secular Jews shrinking from 44 percent to 36 percent, the report stresses the urgency of systemic reforms.

Notably, the Arab population is expected to remain relatively stable, decreasing slightly from 21 to 19 percent. Meanwhile, the share of Israelis aged 65 and above will rise from 12 to 15 percent, adding pressure to the healthcare and pension systems.

The report calls for bold action today: investing in core curriculum education for Haredi youth, improving access to higher education and employment for Arab and ultra Orthodox communities, and planning affordable housing and infrastructure for the nation’s future demographic reality.

While countries like Japan and South Korea face rapid population aging, Israel's challenge is unique: its population is growing fast, but unevenly. Managing this growth is no longer optional — it is a national imperative.

The real test, the report concludes, is not the numbers themselves but whether Israel’s leaders can make the tough decisions needed now, before tomorrow’s pressures become unmanageable crises.