Why Israel is now Terrified of Hamas

Let’s begin by saying: if the Arabs were as talented in engineering or science as they are in negotiation and in extortion by threats, Israel would not exist.

One must tell the truth: public opinion is still in a very hostile place toward Israel, a situation that will take years, perhaps decades if at all, to fix; with President Trump’s prestige sky-high against the backdrop of “the peace” [deal]; and with the possibility of a split in Israeli public opinion if some new war breaks out, together with the expected global criticism that will be directed at Israel if it does not withdraw from the territories it still holds in Gaza because Hamas does not live up to the agreement regarding the disarmament and the release/return of the dead hostages - there is no doubt that we have now reached a point where Hamas’s supreme interest is not to implement the deal in full right now so as to use them as a pawn to gain more power.

They know that they will come out with territorial gains on the one hand which will happen anyway, but because Israel will soon be under pressure to fully withdraw once Hamas’s fire resumes, whether Hamas meets its conditions or not, holding on to the dead-hostages will also help them to enhance their political status in post-war Gaza, and stay the power in control.

Meanwhile, the interest in maintaining the ceasefire lies most of all with Israel, for international and local reasons.

The agreement was meant to provide Israel with quiet. Not peace. Not guarantees. And in such a situation, when quiet is the goal, anything can be done to cause Israel to fight (over the bodies of the hostages) in only a very limited way, until it caves to pressure and again withdraws in an interim process that will take a year or two.

Another equally possible option is that Hamas will gradually try to release enough hostages to bring in Egyptian and Turkish involvement, and thereafter continue to hold hostages while it rebuilds and grows stronger.

Therefore, Israel, to avoid a deeper internal conflict after this country has already become split and torn, and to avoid something that would be much deeper than the “bodies-of-the-hostages protest” that is likely to arise soon, will be forced to take fire, kill Gazan “civilians,” and under pressure from friends, enemies, and Israelis themselves, withdraw without all the hostages being released.

Finally, Hamas will use the bodies to extract the next offer preservation of its (military) political power, i.e., a modification of the agreement in exchange for releasing all the bodies of the hostages. Pulling things in favor of improving its terms.

Remember: the reason Hamas agreed to the deal is that there is no enforcement mechanism Israel can implement that would ensure

A. Unity within its people;

B. Absence of international pressure;

C. A low cost for allies who gained prestige because of the agreement if it breaks;

D. No entanglment of Israel with regional players it has recklessly involved (Turkey, Egypt, Qatar).

On the other hand, remember that there is no real on-the-ground incentive that can make Israel reverse back to pre-ceasefire conditions, the international pressure that will come, whatever happens on the ground, will lead Israel to withdraw anyways from those 53% of Gaza.

The fire will resume with force; Israel will kill, will receive criticism, will try to beg the world, and finally will withdraw, with the hostages’ bodies left behind, or released on the condition that Israel agree that Hamas remain as an independent force in Gaza.

The objective, slow destruction achieved by attrition, has been carried out here since 1920 in a slow manner, with many Arab failures, but they are still deeply in the game and the fight, a lot, and mainly thanks to the Israeli response on October 8.

Sadly for Pro-Israel and Pro-Western minds, the ceasefire is an Arab achievement that is about to be broken, in order to turn it into an even greater achievement.