Trump Is Lying to Everyone — Or He Is Simply Exhausted

There are only two troubling possibilities regarding the agreement Trump is now trying to sell to the world: either he is lying to everyone — to the Israelis, to the Americans, to the Iranians, and perhaps even to himself, or he is simply exhausted.

The emerging deal may be presented as a diplomatic achievement. Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, the release of frozen Iranian assets, and an Iranian commitment not to develop nuclear weapons. But this is a political, economic, and psychological ceasefire - nothing more.

The question is whether Trump truly sees this agreement as a temporary pause until after the midterms — or whether it represents something deeper: an admission that even he, with all his extraordinary energy, has been worn down.

Because the Iranian problem does not end with the signing of a document.

In truth, it barely begins.

Iran’s uranium problem is here - all 11 tons of it. Meantime, Iran has already accumulated knowledge, infrastructure. Even if Tehran agrees to certain limits, inspections, or dilution of enriched uranium, the regime’s capabilities and intents will not disappear. And that is only half the story.

Iran’s ballistic missile program - is central. And the regime continues to operate regional proxies and maintain strategic partnerships with Russia and China - is too. That means Israel will eventually attack Iran. This is the central failure of the deal: a nuclear agreement that does not dismantle Iran’s broader threat capacity is not a peace agreement. It is a risk-management agreement. And in the Middle East, managing risk against a revolutionary regime usually means giving that regime time to recover, learn, rearm, and return stronger. Nor are the Iranians natural partners for a long-term agreement. Their nuclear ambition did not emerge from a technical misunderstanding, and it will not disappear because Trump announces a “deal.” The regime sees its nuclear program, missile program, and regional proxies as part of one system. It does not give these up willingly. It retreats when it must, and advances when it can.

Israel can't accept a regime that survived American pressure. But Israel also cannot ignore the fact that Washington remains the only power capable of a full scale mission. Meantime, America went into war knowing the ballistic missile program is just as a big of a threat as the nuclear program. To turn this into an Israeli issue is dishonest from an American prespective. So the real question is not whether the deal will be signed. The real question is what Trump intends to do after it is broken.

One possibility is that Trump is using the deal to buy time, lower prices, calm markets, get through the midterms, and then return from a stronger political position. In that case, the current agreement is a diplomatic trap: the Iranians will violate it, twist it, delay, and deceive, and Trump will then be able to tell the world that he tried every diplomatic route (again).

But there is another, more dangerous possibility: that Trump is tired of the Iranians, tired of the Middle East, tired of the economic pressure, and is using his familiar diplomacy of optimism - a grand announcement, a shiny phrase, the feeling of victory - hoping that no one will want to embarrass him by saying that the same problem is still standing exactly where it stood before.

The regime in Tehran is a terror regime. It oppresses its own, threatens global energy routes, and continues to view the struggle against the West and Israel as part of its identity. As long as this regime remains in power, every agreement is a pause. And perhaps that is the simplest truth: this agreement is not really meant to work. Everyone knows it. The only question is whether Trump knows it, and is planning to come back later, or whether he has decided to pretend that the problem has been solved because he is tired of it.

If this is a pause before a final reckoning, Israel may have to swallow hard and wait.

If this is an escape disguised as victory, Israel and Europe will have to understand that there are more alone than they thought.