Analysis
Eternal Peace? Trump’s Plan May Hand Hamas Exactly What It Wants
Trump's Middle East peace plan, praised by Netanyahu as a fulfillment of Israel's war goals, faces skepticism due to its reliance on Hamas's agreement and inherent risks - including potential loss of control over Gaza and renewed conflicts, unless critical elements like de-Nazification and a lasting Israeli-American presence are addressed.
At some point after Trump spoke about eternal peace in the Middle East and Netanyahu took the stage to praise the plan, claiming it would meet all of Israel's war objectives, it seemed as though there was an intentional effort to sabotage it on Bibi's side. After all, what are the chances that Hamas would agree to something so historically and ostensibly favorable and praised by Israel's PM?
This plan is intriguing; it is clever, capable of bringing Jews and Arabs to the table, but it carries dangers.
It might lead Israel to lose civilian control over Gaza in most scenarios. Bringing it to the point it was at on October 6th.
It could bring Israel into direct military conflict with various Arab states, as they gain direct access into Gaza, and to Israel's boarders.
it could also precipitate direct conflict with Muslim entities that have no organic territorial connection to Gaza, that are also projected to take part in the rebuilding of Gaza, thereby broadening the circle of conflict.
On the other hand, in the short-mid term It might expand the circle of peace, and hand Israel more American guarantees and backing.
In fact, the only thing that could ensure the success of this plan is what is not included in it: the expulsion of poisoned Gazan Arabs, who must undergo de-Nazification, and a Israeli-American presence on the ground.
Hence, this is a plan of compromise, unlikely to lead to eternal peace, rather, it will delay the war.
And that is precisely what is sufficient for it to fail, namely, Hamas must agree to it, and its very failure is Hamas's interest.
In the short term, the plan allows Hamas members to either remain alive and relocate to other countries or die on the battlefield, there is no middle ground.
This is the stage where Hamas's story essentially ends, and the question is how it wants to conclude it.
In this sense, the plan has merit.
But without Israeli and American presence on the ground the day after, it is very difficult to envision any scenario where Israel does not return to the state it was in during the 2005 disengagement, losing security control for the sake of Arabs who, within a few years, will transform themselves into an armed force against the Jews at their border.
Don't believe it? Open a history book, or the Quran.