Crude exports from the region exceeded their pre-war average on four of the seven days in the final week of September, according to provisional data from maritime analytics firm Kpler cited by Reuters. Shipments reached between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day on Sept. 24 and between Sept. 27 and 29.
The seven-day average stood at 18.5 million barrels per day on Oct. 1, compared with about 18 million barrels per day before the war with Iran began in February.
The figures, however, do not mean that oil shipments have returned to their previous pattern.
Kpler estimates that about 40 percent of crude from the region is now reaching international markets without passing through the Strait of Hormuz, compared with 17 percent before the war. Saudi Arabia has increased shipments through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea, while the United Arab Emirates has relied more heavily on its pipeline to Fujairah.
A large share of the oil that does cross the strait is also being moved differently. Kpler found that more than 70 percent of crude crossing Hormuz in August changed tankers offshore in the Gulf of Oman, part of a growing system designed to reduce exposure to the strait itself.
The increased flow comes as the security situation around Hormuz has deteriorated. Reuters reported Monday that at least seven incidents involving commercial vessels had been recorded recently, including an attack that set fire to the Kuwaiti-owned tanker Kazimah III. British maritime authorities have reported at least one attack a day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since Oct. 2.
The data also suggests that the disruption has changed the geography and cost of the region's oil trade more than it has stopped the flow itself. Longer routes, ship-to-ship transfers and alternative export terminals have allowed Gulf producers to move volumes that would previously have passed through Hormuz.
That adaptation has helped restore overall export volumes, but the shipping system remains more complicated and vulnerable than it was before the war.
Kpler's data shows that at least 16.5 million barrels per day left the Middle East Gulf region between Sept. 1 and 28, matching the pre-war monthly average excluding Iran. The company notes that the recovery has been achieved through a substantially different network of routes and transfers.
