Intelligence analyst Yoni Ben Menachem warned Tuesday that Iran is deliberately delaying military action to time a major offensive near the U.S. presidential election in November, calculating that American casualties would severely damage President Donald Trump's reelection chances.
Speaking on Channel 14, Ben Menachem said Iran's strategy has shifted in response to Trump administration pressure and the political calendar. "They're taking the initiative themselves and buying time to get very close to November," Ben Menachem said. "On Tuesday in November, the U.S. elections happen, and ahead of that date they'll take offensive initiative and attack with force all American interests in the Middle East, and possibly Israel too."
The assessment hinges on Iran's calculation that inflicting American military casualties would prove catastrophically damaging to Trump's electoral prospects. Such a scenario, Ben Menachem argued, would weaken Trump sufficiently that he would emerge from the election as what he called a "lame duck", diminished and easier for Iran to confront afterward.
"Iran hasn't said their last word yet," Ben Menachem cautioned, underscoring that the current 120-day period since the conflict began has been characterized by threats and apparent stalling. "We need to be prepared and ready for defense. We need to prepare for the possibility that they'll attack Israel."
Ben Menachem noted the timing complication: Iran's expected escalation near the U.S. election coincides with Israeli elections in late October and early November. The convergence creates a complex security environment requiring simultaneous Israeli readiness against Iranian attack and domestic political transition.
While assessments in the Middle East remain volatile due to the rapid pace of events, Ben Menachem suggested his analysis represents current intelligence community thinking. "I can only estimate that our security establishment knows the facts and is well-prepared," he said.
