Israeli intelligence officials believe Iran's theocratic regime could collapse as early as the first quarter of 2027, provided the United States maintains sustained economic and diplomatic pressure without wavering. The assessment was shared at the MEAD conference held in Washington, which brought together officials from the United States, Gulf states, and other Middle Eastern nations, according to journalist Amit Segal's reporting.
Former Mossad director Dadi Barnea had estimated last year that effective sanctions would bring down the Iranian government within twelve months. Following approximately six months of American enforcement around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil shipments, current Mossad assessments suggest that continued U.S. action could prove decisive by early next year. A senior American official attending the conference remarked: "This will be a new Middle East."
Conference participants described the Islamic Republic's current condition as significantly worse than it appeared when recent understandings were signed. However, intelligence officials cautioned that the confrontation with Iran remains far from over and is expected to continue for an extended period.
The report noted that until several months ago, a broad consensus held that Iran had emerged from the conflict in a position of strength, following what was perceived as President Donald Trump's abandonment of war objectives. According to current assessments, virtually no officials still maintain that view. A White House senior official posed a rhetorical question: "The Supreme Leader didn't attend his own father's funeral, his brother had to wear a mask, does that look like someone who won?"
