Reserve Major General Ofer Winter's entry into Israeli politics has significantly reshuffled the right-wing landscape, with his new "Amcha Yisrael" party projected to win six Knesset seats, according to a Walla poll released this week.
The survey shows Winter's political debut coming at a steep cost to Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism party, which would fall well below the 3.25% electoral threshold with just 2.6% of the vote. Religious Zionism, which currently holds seven seats in the Knesset, would be entirely shut out of parliament if elections were held today.
Winter's new party appears to be drawing support broadly from right-wing parties. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud would drop to just 21 seats, a significant decline from its current position of strength. Overall, the Netanyahu bloc would stand at 43 seats, and even with Winter's six mandates added, would reach only 49 seats, short of the 61 needed to form a government.
Dr. Menachem Lazar of the Lazar Research Institute, who conducted the poll, explained that the new party is pulling votes from multiple sources across the right. "By my estimate, he took about one seat from Religious Zionism," Lazar said, adding that "the poll indicates a drastic drop in Gilad Erdan's strength as a result of Winter's candidacy. It appears that Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) and United Torah Judaism are also losing votes following the new player's entry into the race."
Lazar noted that Winter is attracting voters who previously sat on the sidelines. "Additional votes that Winter is gaining appear to come from Religious Zionism voters who until now stayed on the fence. Winter is currently perceived as part of a third bloc, and as a result he's managing to draw many mandates from that bloc's potential voter pool."
In the overall seat distribution, the "Yashar!" party led by former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot leads with 25 seats, followed by Likud with 21 and Naftali Bennett's "Yachad" with 15. Other parties in the survey: The Democrats 10, Yisrael Beiteinu 9, Jewish Power 8, Shas 7, United Torah Judaism 7, Hadash-Ta'al-Balad 7, Amcha Yisrael 6, and Ra'am 5.
The poll was conducted today (August 26, 2026) by Lazar Research Institute in partnership with Panel4All, surveying 500 participants representing a representative sample of Israel's adult population, with a maximum sampling error of 4.4%.
