Pollster and strategist Shlomo Filber said Thursday that a government headed by Yisrael Beiteinu chairman Avigdor Liberman with the backing of the chareidi parties remains possible, but faces significant hurdles.
“Anything can still happen,” Filber wrote in a post on X. “But there are quite a few obstacles and barriers on the way there that are worth following.”
Among the obstacles he listed were building consensus within the chareidi parties, securing legal backing for a draft arrangement, and the positions of Yashar chairman Gadi Eisenkot and Naftali Bennett.
According to Filber, the effort on the chareidi side is being led by David Shapira, a confidant of Rav Dov Landau, together with representatives of Gur. He said winning over other chareidi figures will require further negotiation.
“Liberman may have forgiven the chareidim, but the quarrels and rivalries among them have not evaporated. There is a long way to go to convince and recruit everyone to support,” he wrote.
Filber said the proposal under discussion is a temporary order for a year and a half, during which chareidim would not be drafted or arrested. He said it is designed to freeze the situation “without a draft law, quotas, exemptions or sanctions.”
He raised questions about what would come next. “The rabbanim will justifiably want to know what happens afterward,” he wrote. He added that the possibility of religion-and-state legislation being advanced at the same time is a concern both for the rabbanim and for Democrats MKs Yair Golan and Naama Lazimi.
Filber said the proposal would need a “bank guarantee” from legal authorities, naming the Attorney General, Deputy Attorney General Avital Sompolinsky, and Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee legal adviser Miri Frankel-Shor. He also cited Deputy Supreme Court President Noam Sohlberg and Justice Yael Willner in connection with rulings on enforcing sanctions.
Even if Liberman secures chareidi support, rabbinic approval and legal clearance, Filber said Eisenkot and Bennett would struggle to accept him as prime minister. “Each of them thinks he is more suited to be prime minister than Liberman,” he wrote. He suggested Eisenkot “may recalculate his route” and weigh a unity government with Likud rather than serve as defense minister under Liberman.
Filber added that Likud and the right-wing parties would fight such a government from the opposition, and that the Arab parties could remain outside any agreements.
He closed his post: “And for all this good, a little over 30 days remain to close everything.”
The scenario comes as Liberman has dramatically shifted his stance toward the chareidi parties since the election, declaring himself open to an agreement with UTJ and Shas based on his 2018 draft law. Publicly, he has said he is not seeking the premiership, and told Eisenkot earlier this week, “You’ll be the one in that position.”
