Iran Regime Change: Intelligence Warned Trump on Risks

A Wall Street Journal investigation has revealed that American intelligence officials explicitly warned President Donald Trump that assassinating Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would not trigger a political breakthrough or cause the Iranian regime to collapse.

Instead, the intelligence assessment was unequivocal: such a move would likely result in an even more hardline and rigid government taking power in Tehran, one determined to acquire nuclear weapons.

According to the report, just days before the large-scale attack launched on February 28, Trump convened his top security officials for a decisive consultation. The central question: would such a massive strike actually bring down the Iranian regime and dismantle its nuclear program?

Then-Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard delivered a clear message to the president: eliminating Khamenei would most likely lead to the rise of an even more inflexible regime. Senior Pentagon officials echoed the warning, cautioning about potential heavy casualties and the depletion of American munitions stockpiles.

However, Trump, convinced by advisors who argued that Iran was at a historic low point, and swayed by the "decisive" attack plans presented by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and military chiefs, chose to override the concerns and ordered the operation to proceed.

In hindsight, the Wall Street Journal notes, the intelligence forecasts and warnings have proven almost entirely accurate. Khamenei was indeed killed by Israel, an event that drew applause at the president's residence, but the regime did not crumble as Trump had hoped.

In Khamenei's place, his son Mojtaba Khamenei has risen to power, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has tightened its grip on the country. The new regime refuses to yield to American pressure and continues to attack merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz—exactly as intelligence officials had warned would happen.