Israel has warned the United States that Iran may be using an ongoing Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps missile exercise as cover for a possible attack, according to Israeli and U.S. sources cited in a report published Sunday. While U.S. intelligence does not assess that an Iranian strike is imminent, Israeli officials say they are unwilling to dismiss the risk following the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack.
According to the report, Israel has adopted a far lower tolerance for uncertainty in the wake of the failures surrounding October 7. Israeli intelligence believes recent Iranian missile movements, officially described as part of a military drill, could also enable a surprise launch. An Israeli source said the likelihood of an Iranian strike was “less than 50 percent,” but added that Jerusalem is unwilling to assume the activity is purely an exercise.
U.S. intelligence officials, however, told the outlet they have seen no concrete indicators suggesting an imminent Iranian attack. American officials assess that while Iran continues to rebuild its military capabilities following the June war with Israel, current activity does not point to an immediate escalation.
The report said the greatest danger lies in a potential miscalculation, with either side interpreting defensive or preparatory steps as offensive intent and acting preemptively.
Israeli military officials raised the issue directly with Washington over the weekend. IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir held a call with the head of U.S. Central Command on Saturday to discuss Israeli concerns regarding the missile exercise. The two met in Tel Aviv on Sunday, where Zamir urged close coordination between U.S. and Israeli forces on defensive preparations.
