Why is Jordan banning the Muslim Brotherhood now?

The Jordanian Kingdom's dramatic decision today (Wednesday) to legally ban all activity by the Muslim Brotherhood within the country, effective immediately.

But why did Jordan make such a sweeping decision now?

Ofir Winter, a senior researcher at the INSS at Tel Aviv University, said that this decision has been a long time coming, explaining the matter in a thread on X. According to Winter:

"A short thread of initial insights following the Jordanian Interior Minister's announcement on outlawing the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan:

"After 80 years of activity since 1945, it was decided to implement a ruling made five years ago: to dismantle the movement, prohibit its activities, and confiscate its assets."

"The straw that broke the camel's back was the discovery of an explosives and missile laboratory linked to activists connected to the movement. But the background is deeper: an ongoing challenge to state sovereignty, weekly demonstrations opposing the palace's position on the Gaza war, and attempts to turn Jordan into an arena of violent resistance against Israel with Hamas and Hezbollah involvement."

"Additional reasons for the timing: reviving trauma from "Black September" of a "state within a state" and undermining the monopoly on weapons; concerns that attacks from Jordan would damage relations with Israel and the US and affect American aid to the kingdom; stopping the momentum the Brotherhood has felt since their success in the Jordanian parliamentary elections last September and the revolution in Syria."

"The King demonstrates courage and determination, establishing "red lines" and willing to pay an internal price. "A painful but necessary operation," as defined by palace supporters in Jordanian media. The understanding: better to confront the Brotherhood now than risk long-term damage to national security, internal stability, and Jordan's international standing."

"Nevertheless, the palace is still not going all the way - it appears that for now, the political wing "Islamic Action Front" continues to operate in parliament, but will need to prove separation from the parent movement and loyalty to "Jordan first." Additionally, it remains to be seen whether sanctions will be effectively enforced - including restrictions on demonstrations and activities in media and networks."