High-stakes indirect negotiations to end the war and secure the release of all hostages appear to be nearing a definitive conclusion. Late Wednesday, a senior political official familiar with the details of the talks told a news outlet that "An agreement on the first phase will be signed by the end of the week at the latest, allowing the return of the hostages next week."
Israeli officials are expressing genuine optimism, estimating that an agreement on the first phase could be reached within a matter of hours to a few days. Sources indicate that core Israeli principles are being maintained, though intricate details regarding the "Yellow Line" withdrawal map and exact border delineation are currently under intense negotiation.
Deal Expected Within 24-36 Hours
Multiple sources are now converging on an optimistic timeline. Israeli government sources estimate the deal will be achieved within 24 to 36 hours, and an informed non-Israeli source suggested that Qatari mediators believe an agreement can be finalized by Friday. The goal is to announce the deal this week and begin the release of the captives next week.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that if four remaining points of contention can be resolved, the agreement could be sealed as early as Wednesday evening, though Israeli officials expressed skepticism regarding that aggressive timeline.
Key elements of the anticipated first phase include:
- Living Hostages: Hamas has provided information on the estimated 20 living hostages it holds.
- Body Recovery: Hamas is searching for all the bodies of the deceased hostages, though certainty on locating every one is not guaranteed.
- Prisoner Release Condition: Israel is committed to beginning the release of Palestinian prisoners only after Hamas releases all the hostages in its possession, including those that are deceased. Israel must verify that Hamas is not secretly holding any bodies as leverage before the prisoner exchange begins.
- Withdrawal: The Israeli withdrawal will adhere to the general parameters of the Trump plan, with minor adjustments. It is anticipated that the IDF will remain in control of a majority of the Gaza Strip, ensuring a significant perimeter and the continuous encirclement of remaining Hamas operatives from land, sea, and air.
Israel Finalizes Extensive Reception Preparations
In parallel with the critical diplomatic efforts, Israel has completed the majority of preparations to receive the returning captives.
The IDF has finalized arrangements for both living and deceased hostages at the Re'im Camp in the Gaza Division. These preparations include setting up structures, personal equipment, hygiene infrastructure, and training reception staff.
The Ministry of Welfare has also finished its preparations, with a special focus on trauma-adapted care for returnees who are parents to young children. This trauma-informed approach is based on previous hostage releases and international models. Every returning hostage and their family will be assigned a dedicated social worker for emotional, therapeutic, and material support that is not time-limited.
Medical preparations are also complete, with the Director-General of the Ministry of Health, Moshe Bar Siman-Tov, visiting the three main receiving hospitals, Sheba, Beilinson, and Ichilov. Critically injured returnees are expected to be taken directly to Soroka Hospital.
With the technical negotiations reaching a critical stage, senior US officials expressed optimism that a deal can be reached within a few days, noting that the position of Arab states carries unprecedented weight in the final push for an agreement.
