Oded Eilam, former head of the Mossad's Counterterrorism Division and current researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, told Channel 12 News that Iran is currently facing its most severe economic situation since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979.
According to Eilam, the combination of economic contraction, severe inflation, and growing poverty is pushing millions of Iranians into hardship. Yet he stressed a critical strategic distinction: an economic crisis alone is insufficient to topple a dictatorship, no matter how severe.
The turning point, he said, could arrive when two conditions converge: first, when Iranian citizens feel they "have nothing left to lose," and second, when strikes and shutdowns in key economic sectors undermine the regime's ability to finance its security apparatus, particularly the Revolutionary Guards and security forces that maintain regime control through coercion.
"The regime's survival depends on its security forces," Eilam said, noting that economic pressure must translate into an inability to pay those forces for the crisis to threaten regime stability. Without this structural collapse—where the state literally cannot finance its security apparatus—protests and economic hardship alone historically fail to destabilize entrenched dictatorships.
U.S. POLICY INSUFFICIENT
Eilam sharply criticized current U.S. policy, arguing that Washington does not intend to apply the full pressure necessary to economically strangle Iran. He specifically cited the Trump administration's failure to impose comprehensive sanctions against Chinese entities and financial channels that continue enabling Iranian trade despite formal sanctions.
"The Americans are not serious about taking Iran down economically," Eilam told Channel 12. "Without targeting China's financial and commercial role, Iran can continue functioning. The pressure is real, but not total."
The assessment reflects Israeli frustration with what officials view as limited U.S. commitment to maximum economic pressure on Iran. While the Trump administration has reinstituted sanctions and the U.S. and Israel conducted military operations against Iranian targets in early 2026, Eilam suggested these measures, without comprehensive economic warfare including against third countries facilitating Iranian commerce, cannot produce the regime collapse some Israeli officials seek.
ISRAEL MUST PREPARE FOR U.S. PIVOT
Against this backdrop of limited U.S. pressure and Iran's economic crisis, Eilam called on Israel to prepare for what he views as an increasingly likely scenario: the Trump administration seeking to negotiate an end to the confrontation with Iran, rather than pursuing regime collapse.
"Israel must prepare for a situation in which the United States moves toward ending this confrontation," Eilam said. "That could come at any time—through diplomacy, through pressure from allies, or through calculation that the economic and military costs exceed American interests."
If such a U.S. pivot occurs, Eilam emphasized that Israel must retain complete freedom of action to address what he views as the core threat: Iran's nuclear program. Any attempt by Iran to reconstitute or rebuild nuclear infrastructure following a U.S.-Iran agreement or de-escalation must be met with Israeli military action.
"Any attempt to rebuild the nuclear infrastructure must be met with a strike," Eilam said. "This cannot be negotiated away or left to international inspectors. Israel must retain the capability and the determination to act unilaterally."
IRAN'S ECONOMIC REALITY
The economic backdrop for Eilam's analysis is severe. Iran's economy has contracted significantly following international sanctions, the closure of its oil export markets, and damage from military operations. Official Iranian statistics acknowledge inflation exceeding 42 percent, with poverty affecting more than 40 percent of the population and projected to reach nearly 50 percent by 2028 if current trends continue.
Electricity blackouts have become routine across Iran, with power shortages now affecting water systems and basic services. The regime has responded with increased repression, including mass executions of protesters and political opponents, rather than economic reform.
Yet Eilam's analysis suggests that despite genuine economic hardship affecting hundreds of millions, the regime's control remains secure as long as it can pay security forces and maintain coercive capacity. Economic crisis becomes politically destabilizing only when it intersects with the state's inability to finance its security apparatus.
STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS
The Mossad veteran's assessment reflects Israeli strategic thinking about Iran's vulnerability to economic pressure, but with a critical caveat: the pressure must be total and coordinated, including against major third countries like China, to be effective. Absent that, Eilam suggested, Iran can muddle through even severe economic hardship.
His warning to Israel about preparing for a potential U.S. pivot underscores a growing concern in Israeli security circles that the Trump administration's commitment to confronting Iran—while real—may prove less durable than Israel prefers, particularly if a diplomatic off-ramp becomes available.
The implicit message: Israel should not count on sustained U.S. military pressure to solve the Iran problem and should prepare to act independently if and when the U.S. decides to de-escalate.
