Israeli Intelligence Predicts Regime Collapse Months After the War’s End
"Not during the war." Israeli officials reveal a strategic assessment that the Iranian regime will collapse months after the fighting ends due to economic "suffocation."
Nearly one month into Operation Roaring Lion, high-ranking Israeli officials are recalibrating expectations regarding the stability of the Iranian government. According to a senior source quoted Sunday, Jerusalem does not anticipate a popular uprising or regime change while active hostilities are ongoing, but rather in the vacuum that will follow the conflict.
The assessment, originally reported by Ynet, clarifies that Israeli intelligence never expected the Iranian public to take to the streets while their cities were under active bombardment.
The official emphasized that the collapse of the Islamic Republic will likely be driven by economic strangulation rather than a kinetic military coup. The regime’s inability to pay salaries to its security forces and civil servants is seen as the primary trigger for a future internal implosion.
Where is Mojtaba Khamenei?
The source also addressed the mystery surrounding Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei. While he has not been seen in public since the start of the war, Israeli intelligence believes he is still alive.
However, the official noted that Khamenei is currently a leader in name only. The real power on the ground is reportedly being wielded by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which has effectively taken total control of the state's command and control apparatus.
A Strategy of Total Replacement
Israel’s long-term goal remains a complete change of governance in Tehran rather than a surrender agreement with the current leadership. The reasoning is strategic:
"We didn't think the people could go out to the streets while there are bombings," the source concluded, "but the collapse will come a few months after the war, once the economic suffocation takes hold."