Israel Security Chiefs Recommend Doubling Submarine Fleet

Israel's security establishment is recommending a significant expansion of the Navy's submarine fleet in response to strategic shifts in the region and Turkey's growing naval power, according to a report published Tuesday by Doron Kadosh.

A professional assessment delivered to the political echelon concludes that Israel should aim for an operational force of eight submarines operating together in the coming years.

The recommendation is a conceptual shift: Instead of replacing aging submarines with new ones, Israel would actually grow its submarine fleet.

The proposal comes in part from Israeli monitoring of the Turkish Navy's force buildup.

Turkey currently operates 14 operational submarines, according to the report, with that number expected to reach 18 in the coming years. Part of Turkey's expansion includes acquisition of advanced new submarines based on German technology.

By contrast, Israel currently operates five submarines, with a sixth expected to arrive soon. Security officials now believe even six submarines will be insufficient for future needs.

First Step: A Seventh Submarine

A submarine costs an estimated one billion euros. Under the most recent agreement with Germany, Israel was given an option to purchase a seventh submarine at the contract price, an option not yet exercised.

According to Kadosh's report, defense officials recommend exercising the option as a first step, partly to lock in current pricing before potential increases, and then pursuing an additional deal that would enable purchase of an eighth submarine.

The proposal marks a significant departure from past debates over the desired size of the submarine fleet. The issue was central to the so-called "submarine affair," with the state commission of inquiry examining decision-making processes regarding the Navy's required force structure. Previously, positions within the defense establishment ranged between five and six submarines.

Now, according to the report, the security reality created since October 7, together with regional developments and Turkey's military strengthening, have led to formation of a new position that the target should be eight active submarines.

However, senior defense officials estimate that a procurement deal of this scale cannot move forward in the near term, before the elections. The plan is to present the initiative to the political leadership elected afterward and advance the submarine fleet expansion with them.