Two Years Since Nasrallah Elimination Broke Iran's Axis

After 7 October, it seemed Israel's security situation would never return to what it was. National morale was at rock bottom, and despite the effectiveness of forces fighting in Gaza, many of the hostages remained deep in Hamas tunnels, and the Rafah operation with its lessons had not yet taken place.

The first moment of national uplift came with the pager operation, the complete tactical surprise that caught Hezbollah off guard. The psychological and strategic blow its forces absorbed that day, in an Israeli-initiated operation that struck like thunder on a clear day, filled the lungs of every life-loving Israeli with fresh air after many months of holding their breath.

But the real turning point of the campaign came on 27 September 2024, exactly two years ago, when in the early evening hours a formation of Israeli fighter jets dropped dozens of tonnes of bunker-buster munitions on the head of Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah, burying him in his underground fortress in the heart of Beirut.

The strike that killed Nasrallah (Photo: No credit, via social media)

It is true that the axis had already absorbed severe blows by that day. Hamas, the direct executor of Iranian massacre plans, had already lost most of its military capabilities by then. The fighting was difficult and exacted costs on the ground, but Hamas's rocket-launching capabilities against Israel had already been nearly eliminated.

It is also true that the pager attack sent Hezbollah and Nasrallah himself into a wave of panic, confusion, and what many described as severe depression. But everything could have been rebuilt. Many of Hassan Nasrallah's comrades and even his enemies described him as nothing less than the beating heart of the Iranian crescent project, the key axis that combined everything, Lebanon, Iran, Syria, Gaza. All passed through him, and his ability to bring Israel's worst enemies to cooperate around one table cannot be understated.

Had Nasrallah remained alive, it is difficult to see the fall of Assad's Syria and the severing of the endless smuggling stream through it between Iran and Hezbollah. The axis would have absorbed a severe blow, without doubt, but with Nasrallah's help, after some licking of wounds and dusting off of clothes, we would have found ourselves back at the starting point, sooner or later.

Nasrallah's elimination was the beginning of the end for the Shiite axis. His removal from the board as the beating heart of the Iranian crescent opened the path to Assad's fall, which paved the air routes for the Air Force into the heart of Tehran.

Nasrallah's elimination constituted what many expected Soleimani's elimination by President Trump at the end of his first term would constitute, the domino at the base of the tower that brought the entire structure crashing down on its occupants.

Both in Israel and in Lebanon, they mark two years since the elimination of who was perhaps the number one terror architect of the Middle East in modern times. In Israel they mark it with a sigh of relief and justified pride, while in Lebanon they are divided — the Shiites weep while other Lebanese are indifferent, or even happy. The future of Lebanon and Israel will be determined for better or worse according to which of these sides prevails, even within Lebanon's government itself. We can only wait, hope they will choose the right choice, but in the same breath prepare to bring the fortress down again on the heads of those who would presume to replace Nasrallah and rise in his place.