Political analyst Matti Tuchfeld has published a detailed and stark assessment of what awaits Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if the right-wing bloc fails to secure 61 Knesset seats in the next election. Writing in Ma'ariv, Tuchfeld maps out the opposition's strategy for the day after the vote, a plan that would see Netanyahu removed from power before a new government is even sworn in.
According to Tuchfeld, the key to Netanyahu's political survival rests entirely on his ability to secure the necessary majority. Any other result, he warns, will place the prime minister in the path of a swift and coordinated political removal.
"If the right-wing bloc does not have 61 this time, the prime minister will have almost nothing he can do to stop his replacement and perhaps even his permanent removal from politics," Tuchfeld writes. He dismisses the scenario of a hung Knesset leading to repeat elections, the situation that played out in 2019–2020, as wishful thinking. "The scenario most discussed now, given the results of recent weeks' polls, of an inconclusive result and going to another round of elections or perhaps several in a row as in 2019–2020, may look to Netanyahu like a sweet dream, compared to the nightmare scenario he faces in the real world."
Stage One: Seizing the Knesset and Replacing Ohana
Tuchfeld outlines the immediate steps the opposition would take, even before forming an official government.
"The first and immediate stage is taking control of the Knesset by replacing Amir Ohana with a candidate of their choosing," Tuchfeld writes. "The moment that happens, the outgoing coalition will lose in one stroke the ability to influence the agenda, the votes, the laws, and also the appointment of committee chairs and committee members."
The analyst then explains how the opposition would secure the votes needed for these moves: "The next stage is to ensure the cooperation of the Arab parties, like assembling a coalition without an actual coalition at this stage, through a series of laws and budget transfers to the Arab parties, Ra'am and the Joint List."
Legislation Against Netanyahu and a State Commission of Inquiry
According to the analysis, the opposition intends to use its parliamentary majority to advance dramatic legislation that would reshape the political map before the government is sworn in: "A state commission of inquiry will also pass in the Knesset before the government is sworn in. In the new coalition they will try to pass laws that will take Netanyahu out of the game, this time for good. A law barring a prime minister from serving while under indictment was blocked by figures in that coalition, mainly Ayelet Shaked, who imposed a veto. This time, the assessment is, there will be no one to stop them."
