Iran has sharply increased the pace of loading crude oil onto tankers in recent days, according to tanker-tracking data cited by Bloomberg.
Exports from the country’s main terminal on Kharg Island between February 15 and 20 reached nearly 20.1 million barrels, data from independent analytics firm Kpler show. That volume is almost three times the amount loaded during the same period in January and equates to more than 3 million barrels per day, far above Iran’s normal daily export rate.
Bloomberg reported that the surge “is a potential sign of the Persian Gulf state’s preparations in case of an attack by the US.”
The accelerated loadings come as the United States continues to amass military forces in the Middle East amid escalating tensions with Iran over its nuclear program.
Why the Sudden Rush?
Industry analysts and military observers point to three primary drivers for the "fire sale" pace:
- Target Protection: Kharg Island handles approximately 90% of Iran’s oil exports. In the event of a U.S. or Israeli strike, the terminal would be a primary target. By loading the oil onto tankers, Iran ensures the asset is mobile and sellable even if the pier infrastructure is destroyed.
- Cash Reserves: Amidst the threat of total war and crippled domestic infrastructure, Tehran is likely looking to maximize its foreign currency reserves immediately.
- The "Shadow Fleet" Strategy: Many of these tankers are expected to turn off their transponders ("go dark") once they reach international waters, making it harder for Western forces to track or seize the assets during an active conflict.
