Iran Expert Warns: This Iranian Move Could Reignite Full-Scale War
Iran expert Dr. Raz Zimmt warns one Iranian strike on Gulf energy infrastructure could immediately reignite full-scale war as U.S.-Iran attrition battle enters dangerous new phase.
U.S. forces continued strikes against Iranian targets overnight Wednesday into Thursday following the downing of a U.S. Army Apache helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran launching aerial attacks on targets including Kuwait and Bahrain after the U.S. airstrikes.
Dr. Raz Zimmt, head of the Iran and Shia Axis Program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), analyzed the overnight exchanges Thursday morning on 103FM, warning that the conflict has entered a new attrition phase with two military objectives and one political goal.
On the military side, Zimmt said the U.S. is focused on degrading Iran's ability to threaten tanker traffic through Hormuz, including by targeting the IRGC's drone fleet, while also striking air defense systems to ease any potential future return to high-intensity combat. The political objective, he said, is to pressure Tehran toward a deal, but so far, despite the ongoing strikes, Iran has shown no readiness to move beyond its established positions.
Zimmt also pointed to friction within Iran's decision-making process, noting the difficulty of coordinating with a Supreme Leader operating from a remote location. He said Mojtaba Khamenei is capable of making decisions and that the leadership coalescing around him awaits his guidance, but that any decision requires broad consensus given the presence of radical factions within the regime who oppose negotiations with Washington outright.
The current standoff cannot hold indefinitely, Zimmt warned. If Qatar and Pakistan's mediation efforts fail and the U.S. escalates further, Iran may opt not to strike American bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, or Jordan, but instead launch missiles directly at energy infrastructure in the UAE or similar targets, a move he said would immediately trigger a return to all-out war.
Zimmt also pointed to what he called a significant strategic miscalculation by President Trump, who, influenced by the Venezuela experience, assumed the Iranian regime could be quickly and cheaply toppled and Khamenei replaced. That assumption proved wrong, Zimmt said. The Islamic Republic has spent 47 years building a system designed for survival, and its advanced missile and drone capabilities have given it enough leverage to prevent a simple conclusion to the conflict.