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A tale of two Irans

The IRGC Just Made Clear Who Really Controls Hormuz

Iran's IRGC Navy rejected an Oman-IMO shipping corridor through Hormuz hours after Iranian diplomats visited Muscat, exposing a deepening split between Tehran's political and military echelons.

The commander of the IRGC's special forces declared defiantly that they are ready to make the Bab el-Mandeb Strait a dangerous point, repeating the Strait of Hormuz is fate as long as Israel continues its attacks on Lebanon.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy moved Thursday to assert unilateral control over the Strait of Hormuz, rejecting a newly announced shipping corridor coordinated by Oman and the International Maritime Organization and warning that any vessel using routes not authorized by Tehran would face direct enforcement action.

The move came less than 48 hours after Iran's chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled to Muscat to discuss Hormuz arrangements with the Omani sultan, a visit that appeared to signal diplomatic progress. The IRGC's swift public repudiation of the route Oman announced in the immediate aftermath exposed what analysts have increasingly identified as a deepening split between Iran's political leadership and its military establishment over who controls the terms of any post-war order in the strait.

The IRGC Navy said that "certain authorities" had announced a new maritime transit route through the strategic waterway "without prior notification to or coordination with the Islamic Republic of Iran." It declared the proposed route "unacceptable" and said it "poses serious safety risks."

"The only authorised transit routes through the Strait of Hormuz are those designated by the Islamic Republic of Iran. Vessel traffic outside these routes is prohibited and highly dangerous. All ships are strongly advised to avoid any navigation outside the designated corridors," the IRGC said.

The force added that coordination with the IRGC Navy via Channel 16 is mandatory for any passage through the strait, and that "any vessel found in violation will be subject to enforcement measures."

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In the context of recent Iranian attacks on shipping, in which eleven mariners have been killed since the conflict began, the IRGC's framing of the Omani route as a "safety risk" carries the weight of a credible threat rather than a bureaucratic objection.

What Oman Announced

On Wednesday, Oman said it was providing, in coordination with the IMO, a temporary shipping transit corridor through the strait designed to ensure freedom of navigation without imposing transit fees, describing the move as consistent with outcomes reached by the United States and Iran.

The Omani passage consists of a designated waiting area inside the Gulf and six waypoints around the Musandam Peninsula, keeping ships just south of the original Traffic Separation Scheme, which is believed to be mined. The route runs entirely within Omani territorial waters and is jointly coordinated between Muscat and the IMO, representing a 4-to-5-hour voyage.

The IMO's Secretary-General had said the evacuation of more than 11,000 seafarers stranded in the Middle East Gulf would be carried out in cooperation with Iran, Oman, and the United States. The IRGC's statement directly contradicted that framing, asserting Iran had not been consulted.

A Two-Tier Strait

The conflicting instructions have created a confused, two-tier system now operating in the waterway, split between the Iran-controlled northern route past Qeshm Island and a U.S.-protected southern corridor, with the pre-war shipping lanes separating them rendered unusable by the risk of mines.

Traceable traffic through Hormuz jumped 270 percent to 119 transits last week after the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding partially reopened the waterway, but the surge masks deep uncertainty about which ships are transiting which route under whose authority. Traffic remains far below the more than 150 daily tankers that used the strait before the war.

The IRGC has reportedly stopped issuing new transit permits for the Tehran-controlled northern corridor, with only vessels that already hold permission, or those directly selected by Iranian authorities, currently being allowed to pass.

The Split Within Iran

The episode underscores a tension that has shadowed the U.S.-Iran diplomatic process from its opening stages. Iran's political echelon, represented by Araghchi and Ghalibaf, has engaged in negotiations in Switzerland and signaled flexibility on timelines and frameworks. The IRGC, which controls actual operations in the strait and whose institutional identity is bound up with asserting Iranian sovereignty over it, has repeatedly moved to foreclose arrangements that its commanders did not negotiate and do not control.

Ghalibaf has signaled that Tehran views the post-war arrangement as fundamentally different from the prewar status quo, saying that "Hormuz will never return" to its previous conditions, a position the IRGC's actions Thursday did nothing to contradict.

For shipping operators, the practical consequences are immediate. The mandatory Channel 16 coordination requirement effectively places Iranian military consent at the center of every commercial shipping movement through the chokepoint, giving Tehran operational leverage that exists entirely independently of whatever diplomatic language emerges from Switzerland.

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