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Analysis

Pollster: No bloc can form government

Tzuriel Sharon, who delivered the most accurate sample in the last election, tells Nadav Peri's ALL-IN podcast that neither Netanyahu nor the opposition can reach 61 seats — and that advisers promising a landslide are wrong and misleading

Top Pollster: Neither Bloc Can Form Government in New Elections

As political speculation mounts over the possibility of repeat elections, the pollster who delivered the most accurate sample in the last election cycle has delivered a blunt assessment: neither side can win. Tzuriel Sharon, whose i24NEWS poll outperformed all others in the most recent Knesset race, told Nadav Peri's ALL-IN podcast that advisers promising party leaders a decisive victory are "simply wrong and misleading them."

"There are people telling Netanyahu that if he goes to elections again he'll bring in 61, and they're wrong and misleading him, and not for the first time," Sharon said in the interview. "I don't see it in the numbers right now. And on the other side, around Eisenkot and others, there are people whose vision is limited or who are driven by certain ambitions."

According to Sharon, the balance of forces in the political map does not allow for a clear decision by either side; even if Ofer Winter crosses the electoral threshold, the demographic and electoral data do not shift in a way that would enable a narrow government.

"The Arabs won't drop below 16 or 17 seats in the next election, no matter how you spin it," he explained. "Once that's the case, you don't have 61 for either bloc. The change bloc brought the best result it could bring. All along I talked to them about a ceiling of 50 seats, but there were stubborn people there who didn't want to understand that. There is no change bloc that can break through that ceiling, because on the worst day for the right, Likud and its partners bring in 55 seats. This whole game of promises of a landslide victory is simply not connected to reality."

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