Chareidim threaten Arab party vote over draft law

Until recently, such a sentence would have been unthinkable at a chareidi demonstration. In a video published by Kikar Hashabat, one protester declared: "We prefer to vote for the Arab parties rather than for the chareidim." He justified his words with a statement from Chazal that one who causes another to sin is worse than one who kills him. Another protester announced he would not vote at all, and a third chassid called for abstention as the most effective form of protest.

It is important to be precise: this is not the mainstream voice in the chareidi street. The demonstrations were held against the backdrop of arrests of yeshiva students, and many in the chareidi public attribute these statements to the extreme fringe. But according to Kikar Hashabat, the ferment is reaching more internal circles as well. In Gur chassidus, the "central faction" that until now was the electoral engine of Agudas Yisrael is silent this time. The activists' gathering of Belz was not covered in the Hamodia newspaper, and a Belz representative, Elikim Shtark, made clear in his speech that the chassidus would no longer be satisfied with a role of merely receiving.

"A bloc of our own": What United Torah Judaism is saying

The shift has not remained in the street. United Torah Judaism chairman MK Yaakov Asher entered the position after Rav Dov Lando removed Moshe Gafni and Uri Maklev from the list last month. This ends, after decades, the parliamentary career of Gafni, who will not be a member of the next Knesset. Asher said in an interview with the Knesset Channel: "We are a bloc of our own, whoever wants us will have to join us." Earlier he clarified that according to the directive of gedolei Yisrael, United Torah Judaism "will not support and will not enter any government without arranging the status of Torah learners."

MK Yitzchak Pindrus went a step further. According to him, the party is not automatically committed to Netanyahu's bloc, and has not yet decided how it will vote if a government is formed under Gadi Eisenkot. According to a report on Channel 14, United Torah Judaism is preparing to remain outside the next coalition and support it only from outside, even if the right-wing bloc wins. Even before his removal from the list, Gafni was recorded in a discussion with rabbanim about the possibility of leaving the right-wing bloc. He said the preference is to remain in the bloc, but wondered whether it is worth the price.

Behind the scenes: the Gafni-Tibi axis

On paper, the chareidi parties and the Arab parties are at opposite ends of the map. In practice there is a common denominator between them:

Religious conservatism versus liberal legislation
A struggle for autonomy of educational systems and religious courts
A shared interest in allowances and assistance for populations with large families and high poverty rates

The prominent arena for this cooperation was the Finance Committee, which Gafni headed for many years, until he resigned from the position when United Torah Judaism left the coalition. His relationship with MK Ahmad Tibi received its own name in the Knesset: "the Gafni-Tibi axis." Tibi himself described it thus: "Gafni discovered that this is our soul bird, there are understandings between us." Gafni returned the compliment in one of the committee sessions when "MK Tibi sometimes seems to me like some kind of Degel Hatorah man."

In an interview with Makor Rishon, Gafni explained the logic. He acted for the benefit of the Arab public, and the Arab MKs did not object when he stood for election as chairman of the Finance Committee. According to him, "there is ad-hoc cooperation with MKs from Arab parties, there always was and always will be." The reciprocity was also evident in sensitive votes: the chareidi MKs opposed the removal of MK Hanin Zoabi from the Knesset, and the Arab MKs abstained in votes on Shabbos matters.

This axis was not Gafni's alone. The Joint List noted in the past that the channel also exists with MK Yitzchak Vaknin from Shas.

Moshe Gafni (Photo: Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

The Muezzin Law: when the cooperation came to light

The best-known example is the Muezzin Law. In 2016, Minister Yaakov Litzman from Agudas Yisrael filed an appeal against the law in the Ministerial Committee, fearing it would harm Shabbos sirens in chareidi cities. Shas stood by his side. Joint List chairman Ayman Odeh did not hide his satisfaction: "On the Muezzin Law issue, 1-0 in favor of United Torah Judaism, they played it." According to Behadrei Chareidim, the Joint List pressured United Torah Judaism MKs to oppose the law. Even after the Shabbos siren was excluded from the text of the law, the coalition chairman at the time complained that the chareidi parties continue to oppose it.

And the precedent? Shas and the Rabin government

In 1992, Shas joined the Rabin government, alongside Labor and Meretz. During the term, against the backdrop of the Oslo Accords and the crisis surrounding Aryeh Deri, it left the coalition but continued to support the government on specific issues. At that time the government leaned on a blocking bloc of Hadash and the Arab Democratic Party. This is the closest precedent to a government in which the chareidim did not sit alongside the right-wing bloc.

Aryeh Deri (Photo: Michal Fattal/Flash90)

What is expected the day after?

The other side is also preparing plans. Ra'am chairman Mansour Abbas recently presented a model for establishing "Change Government 2": some of the Arab parties will enter the coalition, and others will support it from outside as a blocking bloc.

With Gafni outside the list, the axis loses the one who operated it in practice. The interests that gave birth to it remain, and the question is whether Asher's new leadership will find partners in them or build its own channels.

A formal alliance between chareidim and Arabs is still distant. It is decided by gedolei Torah, not by protesters in the street, and the chareidi base is identified with the right. The more realistic scenario is United Torah Judaism outside the government, support from outside conditional on the draft law, and specific cooperation in committees, as there always was.

If neither bloc reaches 61 without United Torah Judaism, the question will no longer be what they are shouting at demonstrations, but what the rabbis decide.