Days before the polls open, the chareidi street appears to be undergoing an unprecedented upheaval. Where past election campaigns saw the chareidi public stream to the ballot box at turnout rates of 80% to 88%, the latest Super Data Institute survey reveals a completely different picture --- and a particularly dramatic one.
In a special broadcast on Kikar Hashabat's studio, Eli Gotthelf and Super Data Institute chairman and strategist Avi Widerman analyzed the numbers behind the scenes. The full data, presented in the attached video, points to a deep fracture of trust between the chareidi voter, especially young voters in the sector, and the traditional parties Shas and United Torah Judaism.
The central numbers you need to know
Apathy or protest? Turnout collapses
The first figure to shock researchers is the expected turnout rate: only 75% of the entire chareidi public say they will definitely vote. Among young voters (up to age 30), the situation is even worse, only 69% are certain they will exercise their democratic right. This is a conservative population caught in a deep conflict: on one hand, they refuse to vote for the existing chareidi parties because those parties do not represent them (36%). On the other hand, they are unwilling to vote for another party in opposition to the view of gedolei Yisrael (33%). Their authentic chareidi solution? "Sit and do nothing", simply not to vote.
Shas and UTJ crash among the young
The survey reveals a sharp drop in support for the mother parties. Among those aged 30 and under, Shas plunges from 33-36% in the past to just 13%. United Torah Judaism records a fall from 50% to 41%. This represents a loss of tens of thousands of votes, meaning the loss of critical mandates for the entire bloc.
The riddle of the askanim and the rabbanim
62% of the chareidi public believe that political askanim are the ones controlling the homes of gedolei Yisrael. Among the chassidic public, the figure jumps to 70%. Despite this, many will still vote for these parties out of "emunas chachamim," but it appears the rope is stretched to its limit.
The dark horse of the election: the Achi movement
Where are the lost votes going? While Motti Leitner (11%) is experiencing stagnation in his campaign and struggling to break through the glass ceiling, the big surprise of the survey comes from the direction of the Achi party (students of Rav Abergel). The party has surged dramatically since August and now enjoys 9% support among the entire chareidi public, and 12% among the young. In the internal poll of the alternative parties, Achi leaps to 38% against 45% for Leitner, a peripheral awakening on the ground that may constitute the great ballot-box protest of the election.
The draft issue and women in politics
Contrary to the prevailing perception that young people are more liberal, the survey proves the opposite. Young chareidim are more rigid and conservative than their elders. Only 36% of the young support drafting yeshiva bochurim who are not learning (compared to 46% in the entire sample) - a direct result of what is perceived on the street as a "war on the yeshiva world." Also regarding the inclusion of women in politics, the young are more conservative than their parents.
The bottom line
"If I'm a strategic adviser to Shas or Degel Hatorah," Avi Widerman summed up in the studio, "I'm not going to sleep. We're in the final stretch, the situation is not good, and the campaigns are not working."
The coming two weeks are expected to be fascinating, tense and full of passion. The chareidi public is changing, the young generation is demanding answers, and the voting map is being reshaped.
