Inflation across Europe accelerated in September at a sharper pace than economists expected, with preliminary figures from France, Italy, Germany and Poland pointing to a renewed surge in price pressures. The main driver: a significant spike in energy costs, against the backdrop of the war with Iran and turbulence in oil and electricity markets.
In France, the harmonised consumer price index jumped to 3.4% in September from 2.6% in August, above the 3% forecast by economists. National inflation rose to 3%, from 2.4% the previous month, the fastest rate since February 2024. According to INSEE, the national statistics office, energy and fresh food prices were among the chief contributors to the increases.
Italy recorded an even sharper acceleration: the annual inflation rate climbed to 4.2%, up from 3.3% in August, the highest level since September 2023 and above market expectations of 3.8%. Regulated energy prices surged 25.9% year-on-year, while unregulated energy prices rose 22.2%. Italy's harmonised inflation index reached 4.1%, a three-year high.
Germany is also heading above the 3% threshold. Data from five key states showed annual inflation of 3.2% in Bavaria, 3.3% in North Rhine-Westphalia and Lower Saxony, 3.4% in Hesse, and 2.9% in Baden-Württemberg. Economists estimated the national rate would stand at 3.2%, compared with 2.9% in August.
Pressure in Germany is visible on the import side as well: import prices rose 8.3% in August compared with the same period last year, with energy import prices jumping 43%. Electricity prices climbed 63.9%, and petroleum product prices surged 63.3%, developments that are likely to filter through to consumer goods and services in the months ahead.
In Poland, inflation rose to 4% in September from 3.4% in August, the highest level since mid-2025. The figure exceeded the Polish central bank's target range for the first time since that period.
