A theory circulating on Israeli social media suggests that the co-pilot who allegedly stabbed his captain aboard Flydubai flight FZ1073 on Wednesday intended to crash the plane into Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, which hosts U.S. aircraft. Flight tracking data and official statements so far do not support that conclusion, and no investigative body has linked the attack to any target.
The hypothesis was posted on X by Yaniv Erlich, an Israeli computer scientist and genetics researcher. Erlich argued that the location of the incident, at cruising altitude over remote desert, made little sense for a random suicide crash or a hijacking. He suggested the attacker wanted to strike the strategic base and inflict both a mass-casualty attack on Israelis and a "mini 9/11" against Americans. He tied the theory to British Prime Minister Andy Burnham's statement that Iran likely played a part in a suspected plot near RAF Fairford, a British air base used by U.S. bombers, and warned that Iran may have planned a week of attacks on strategic bases.
The documented flight path points in a different direction. According to Flightradar24, the Boeing 737 MAX 8, carrying about 174 passengers and six crew, entered a sudden, steep descent from its cruising altitude of 34,000 feet at about 05:21 UTC, roughly two hours after leaving Dubai. Reuters, citing tracking data, reported the jet lost almost 14,000 feet in under 30 seconds at one point. The transponder switched to the general emergency code 7700 along the Saudi-Jordanian border, then to 7500, the code for unlawful interference. The aircraft turned west, briefly entered Jordanian airspace, reversed course and diverted to Tabuk in northwestern Saudi Arabia.
That path does not show a sustained track toward Muwaffaq Salti, which lies near Azraq in northeastern Jordan, far from the southern border sector where the plane briefly crossed. A normal Dubai to Tel Aviv routing also passes along or through Jordanian airspace, so the plane's position near Jordan at that stage was not unusual in itself. Aviation analysts note that the violent early descent is more consistent with an attempt to drive the aircraft into the ground than with precise navigation toward a distant target.
Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have said the Omani first officer stabbed the Indian captain, Smit Machchhar, and tried to crash the aircraft. Netanyahu said Machchhar prevented a 9/11-style disaster. Despite serious wounds, the captain opened the cockpit door, allowing passengers and crew to overpower the attacker. Israeli passenger Yaniv Hayoun said he dragged the attacker out of the cockpit and then pulled back on the controls to stabilize the plane. Flydubai has said the motive remains under investigation.
The Fairford case also remains unresolved. Five British men were arrested near the base on September 27 on suspicion of explosives and terrorism offenses and were later released on bail. Police said no explosives were found in the three vans at the scene, and no charges have been filed. Iran has denied involvement.
Erlich's broader warning about Iranian efforts to target Western and Israeli interests reflects real concern during the ongoing conflict with Tehran. But until investigators release findings, there is no evidence that the Flydubai attack was aimed at Muwaffaq Salti or coordinated with the Fairford incident. What is established is that the quick action of an injured pilot and ordinary passengers prevented a catastrophe over the desert.
