Israeli Election Polls: Winter's Party Crosses Threshold

A new poll published Sunday evening by Israel's Kan 11 public broadcaster shows retired brigadier general Ofer Winter's party crossing the electoral threshold for the first time since its founding. According to the survey, Winter's "Amcha Yisrael" party would secure 4 Knesset seats, while Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism party falls below the 3.25% threshold required to enter parliament.

The findings point to a significant shift within Israel's right-wing political landscape. Winter's entry into the Knesset comes at Smotrich's expense, marking the first time since the current government's formation that Religious Zionism would fail to clear the minimum threshold. Meanwhile, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir's Jewish Power party also weakens, dropping to 7 seats.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party continues its decline, falling to just 21 seats in the poll. Former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot's "Yashar" party maintains its lead in the political landscape with 24 mandates. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's "Yachad" party receives 14 seats, while Yair Golan's Democrats party garners 9 seats.

Among the ultra-Orthodox parties, United Torah Judaism holds steady at 8 seats. Shas, led by Aryeh Deri, receives 7 mandates. Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beiteinu party wins 8 seats.

Arab parties show significant gains in the survey. The joint Hadash-Ta'al-Balad list receives 8 seats, while Mansour Abbas's Ra'am party wins 5 mandates. Combined, the Arab parties reach 13 seats—a notable increase in strength.

Several parties remain below the electoral threshold, including Smotrich's Religious Zionism, the Tropper-Hendel party, a party led by Gideon Sa'ar and Gilad Erdan, and Benny Gantz's Blue and White.

When divided into political blocs, Netanyahu's right-wing coalition strengthens to 52 mandates, with Winter's entry into the Knesset bolstering the camp. Eisenkot's bloc weakens to 55 seats, while the Arab parties hold 13 mandates and represent a decisive factor in the balance of power.

The poll also tested various merger scenarios. A union between Smotrich and Ben-Gvir would weaken both parties to a combined 10 seats, compared to 12 when running separately. In this scenario, Winter would strengthen to 5 seats. Despite this, 57% of coalition voters support such a merger.

Another scenario examined a potential union between Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin. In this case, Religious Zionism would rise to 7 seats—tying with Ben-Gvir. However, under this scenario, Winter would fall below the threshold and remain outside the Knesset.