Ofer Winter Political Betting: New Party Surges on Markets

Just two days after launching his new political party "Amcha Yisrael" (Your People Israel), Reserve Major General Ofer Winter has registered an unexpectedly strong showing on Polymarket, an international prediction and betting platform. According to the platform's data on who will become Israel's next prime minister, Winter has narrowly surpassed Avigdor Liberman, chairman of the Yisrael Beiteinu party and a former finance minister.

The figures show Winter attracting 4.1% of bettors' support, compared to just 4% for Lieberman. While the gap is minimal (only one-tenth of a percentage point) it still reflects the rapid shift in betting markets following Winter's entry into the political arena, according to a report in Israel Hayom.

The movement in betting markets comes alongside mixed results in traditional polling. Some surveys show Winter's new party clearing the electoral threshold comfortably, while others place it below the minimum needed to enter the Knesset, Israel's parliament. According to one poll published yesterday, the party would win six seats, though its entry into the Knesset would draw votes away from other right-wing parties.

In the broader betting market for Israel's leadership, the top rankings remain stable. Polymarket data shows Gadi Eisenkot, chairman of the "Yashar!" party and a former IDF chief of staff, leading significantly with 53% of all bets on the next prime minister. Current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who heads the Likud party, holds second place with 28%, followed at a distance by Naftali Bennett, chairman of the "Yachad" party and a former prime minister, who draws just 8% of bettors' support.

Winter's initial surge in betting metrics follows directly from his party's launch event, where he addressed voters seeking fresh faces in the political system following the events of October 7th. Winter emphasized that the Israeli public would not accept continuation of the status quo or lack of change in the political landscape, presenting his candidacy as an answer to the need for new blood and leadership outside the existing establishment.

Ofer Winter and Yoseph Haddad (Amkha Yisrael Party)

Obviously, international betting markets do not substitute for scientific polling, but they do reflect bettors' perceptions of political probabilities.

Winter's entry into politics has also drawn sharp responses from Yair Netanyahu, the prime minister's son, who warned that a separate run by Bezalel Smotrich—currently finance minister and a right-wing party leader—would inevitably lead to a left-wing government. Meanwhile, a dispute has developed between Winter and Eisenkot regarding Winter's potential appointment as defense minister, with Eisenkot claiming that Winter lacks experience in strategic command.