Skip to main content
Get our mobile app
Download on the App StoreGet it on Google Play

Israel elections 2026

What will decide Israel's election?

Nadav Perry dismisses Eisenkot's call for a Netanyahu debate and says the real race is at the threshold, where Ofer Winter's party and two others could swing the entire map

Pollster: This is What will Decide the Election (and it's Not the Debates)

Veteran Israeli political analyst Nadav Perry told Radio 103FM this week that the call by Gadi Eisenkot for a televised debate with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is a non-event, and that the real story of the election is happening at the threshold line, where two or three small parties could flip the entire bloc map.

"Netanyahu will not agree to a televised debate. The entire Israeli protocol that used to include debates has left the political stage. It's not going to happen," Perry said. "I don't think it's a significant event. It's a kind of ritual that repeats itself, Herzog calls him to a debate, Gantz calls him to a debate, Lapid calls him to a debate, Eisenkot calls him to a debate, and he doesn't come. I don't attach much importance to a debate that won't happen."

He then turned to what he believes will actually decide the outcome in the three weeks remaining before election day: the parties hovering around the electoral threshold, including the party led by former general Ofer Winter.

"Three weeks is a lot of time," Perry explained. "Even if there are no events at the news level, we saw yesterday in the Channel 11 poll that Winter's party does not pass. When Winter's party does not pass, this affects the bloc map."

Perry summed up by pointing to these narrow swings as the real deciders: "Can something else happen? Even if there are zero events at the level of prominence, the game of two or three parties around the threshold percentage can still create a not insignificant disproportion in the mandate map we see today. This disproportion can affect the bottom line. This entire event of the delicate dance around the threshold is the most significant thing."

Ready for more?

Join our newsletter to receive updates on new articles and exclusive content.

We respect your privacy and will never share your information.

Enjoyed this article?

Yes
No
Follow Us:

Unmissable content


Loading comments...

Also of Interest