Lost Control: UN Watchdog Reveals It Can't Locate Iran's Near Weapons-Grade Uranium Stockpile.

The UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has warned that it has been unable to verify the status or location of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which is just a short technical step away from weapons-grade purity, for five months. This loss of knowledge follows the widespread strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites carried out by Israel and the United States during the 12-day war in June.

According to a confidential IAEA report circulated to member states this week, the agency "lost continuity of knowledge in relation to the previously declared inventories of nuclear material in Iran" at the facilities affected by the war. The report stressed that this lapse must be "urgently addressed" because the "lack of access to this nuclear material in Iran for five months means that its verification, according to standard safeguards practice, is long overdue."

Stockpile for Ten Bombs

The IAEA's last verifiable report in September indicated that Iran maintains a stockpile of 440.9 kilograms (972 pounds) of uranium enriched up to 60% purity. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has warned that this quantity could be used to build as many as 10 nuclear bombs should Tehran choose to weaponize its program. Iran maintains its nuclear program is strictly peaceful, despite Western and IAEA assertions that Tehran had an organized weapons program up until 2003.

Under its safeguards agreement, Iran is required to provide a "special report" detailing the location and status of all its nuclear material and the facilities affected by major events like the June war. The IAEA stated this report is "indispensable" for the agency to provide assurances that nuclear material remains in peaceful activities.

However, Iran informed the IAEA in a letter on November 11 that "any cooperation with the Agency is conditional on the decision of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) of Iran," and access to the war-damaged sites, including parts of the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, has not been granted.

Sanctions and Cooperation Hurdles

Iran had initially suspended all cooperation with the IAEA after the war. Although Grossi reached a deal with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Cairo in early September to resume inspections at undamaged facilities, including the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant and the Tehran Research Reactor, that agreement was short-lived.

Later that same month, European powers reimposed crushing UN sanctions on Iran via the so-called snapback mechanism. This move was made after Iran failed to engage in direct talks with the U.S., did not resume full cooperation with the IAEA, and failed to clarify the status of its near weapons-grade uranium stockpile. The reimposed sanctions halt arms deals, penalize ballistic missile development, and freeze Iranian assets, further isolating Tehran.

Despite the standoff, the IAEA report confirmed that inspectors were traveling to Iran this week to conduct inspections at the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center site. This large facility, located 350 kilometers southeast of Tehran, was among the sites targeted by Israel and the U.S. during the June war, with missile strikes hitting a uranium conversion facility there. Iran is legally obliged to cooperate with the IAEA under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.