According to analyses by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Patriot missile stocks dropped from approximately 2,330 units before the confrontation to between 759 and 827 by the end of July 2026. THAAD stocks fell from approximately 452 to between 234 and 278. A new document from the Congressional Research Service, published on 5 October, presents a broader picture of the damage: 81 American aircraft, including planes, helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles, were lost or damaged since military operations against Iran began on 28 February.
Mearsheimer emphasises that extreme pressure removes the final barriers to an Iranian nuclear breakout. Tehran's leaders now understand more than ever that nuclear weapons are the only insurance policy against foreign attempts at elimination. American pressure, in his assessment, is not deterring them but pushing them to cross the threshold.
The picture Mearsheimer presents is of an America that began the war from excessive confidence, and is discovering it has no realistic military option to defeat Iran without risking global disaster. Iran, by contrast, is capable of absorbing blows, conducting a war of attrition, and forcing Washington to acknowledge failure. The greater the pressure, the higher the likelihood that Tehran will choose the most extreme option.
Mearsheimer, who is a cold realist, looks at the balance of power and concludes that America is playing with fire. A policy based on threats of annihilation, on a siege designed to break an entire people, and on ignoring the adversary's asymmetric capability, is not a policy of strength but a policy of hubris, in his words.
The question that remains open, according to Mearsheimer, is not whether Iran is capable of exacting an unbearable price. The question is how far the Trump administration is willing to push before it understands that this price could be paid not only in Iran, and not only in the Gulf, but in the economy of the entire world.
