Former National Security Council head Prof. Yakov Amidror Nagel is sounding the alarm over what he sees as Iran's emerging diplomatic playbook, warning that Tehran intends to use its control over the Strait of Hormuz as a bargaining chip to pressure Israel into territorial concessions.
Speaking in an interview with Yaakov Bardogo, Nagel laid out a scenario he described as a dangerous extortion mechanism now taking shape at the Iran-U.S. negotiating table.
"Iran can say: 'The Strait of Hormuz matters to you? Then Israel withdraws from Lebanon,'" Nagel said, spelling out what he believes Tehran's next diplomatic move will be. From there, he warned, the demands would only escalate. "Then they can expand the demands to Gaza, then to Judea and Samaria, and then to additional issues."
Nagel expressed particular concern about the prospect of an early Israeli withdrawal from the security zone in southern Lebanon, arguing that any retreat before Hezbollah is disarmed would set a dangerous precedent.
"I'm worried about the slippery slope," he said. "If Israel withdraws from Lebanon before its security is guaranteed, or before Hezbollah is disarmed, and it will not disarm as long as the Iran-U.S. negotiations continue, we could find ourselves in a very problematic situation."
The former security chief argued that Iran has deliberately linked global shipping freedom through Hormuz to Israeli military positioning, creating a diplomatic trap that puts Western economic interests in direct tension with Israeli security interests. In his view, any Israeli concession under that pressure would only whet the appetite of what he called the "axis of evil" for further demands.
Nagel closed on a note of resolve, emphasizing that Israel remains a strong and stable state capable of holding firm on its security principles, even under mounting international pressure.
