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Israel Elections 2026

Winter's Fate May Decide Next Israeli PM

Amit Segal says whether the former general's party crosses the electoral threshold will determine if Gadi Eisenkot becomes prime minister

Amit Segel

With 51 days remaining until Israel's elections, Channel 12 political analyst Amit Segal has identified what he believes could be the decisive factor in the entire campaign: whether the party led by retired Major General Ofer Winter will cross the electoral threshold required to enter the Knesset.

"Winter, in a broader perspective, this is the story that will accompany us, as it appears now, in the 51 days that remain," Segal explained. "Because the question of whether Winter crosses or not is shaping up to be the smallest question with the biggest implications in this election."

Segal outlined the dramatic political balance hanging on Winter's electoral performance: "If he falls just slightly below the threshold, Eisenkot can celebrate becoming prime minister. If he crosses the threshold, Eisenkot can essentially say goodbye to it. It's that small a margin, and yet the consequences are that enormous."

The analysis highlights how minor parties can play an outsized role in Israel's proportional representation system, where votes for parties that fail to cross the threshold (currently 3.25% of valid votes) are redistributed among parties that do qualify, potentially shifting the balance between competing political blocs.

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