Final polls: no side has majority

The Arab parties, which are not formally counted in either bloc, win 14 seats in the Kan and Channel 12 surveys, and 16 in the Channel 13 poll, a figure that could significantly affect the coalition arithmetic for both camps.

Poll average: Yashar leads with 22 seats

Averaging the three main television surveys yields the following picture: Eisenkot's Yashar takes 22 seats, Netanyahu's Likud 20, and Naftali Bennett's Yachad 15.

In the chareidi sector, United Torah Judaism under Yaakov Asher and Shas under Aryeh Deri receive eight and seven seats respectively. A Super Data poll published this week found turnout in the chareidi sector has jumped to 88 per cent, a level that may make it harder for smaller parties to cross the threshold.

Yair Golan's Democrats and the Joint List under Yosef Jabareen each average nine seats. Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beiteinu and Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit each take eight, while Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism–Zehut wins seven. Ra'am receives six.

On the poll average, Ofer Winter's Amcha Yisrael and Yoaz Hendel's Reservists–Economic party both fall short of the threshold, though the latter crossed it in one Kan survey with four seats.

The Kan poll, conducted by Kantar, breaks down as follows: Yashar (22), Likud (20), Yachad (14), Democrats (9), Joint List (9), Otzma Yehudit (8), Yisrael Beiteinu (8), United Torah Judaism (8), Shas (7), Religious Zionism–Zehut (7), Ra'am (5), Reservists–Economic (4). Below threshold: Amcha Yisrael (2.9%), Black Colour (0.8%), Chareidi Public (0.7%).

The Channel 12 poll, by Midgam, shows: Yashar (23), Likud (21), Yachad (15), Democrats (10), Joint List (9), Shas (8), Yisrael Beiteinu (8), Otzma Yehudit (8), United Torah Judaism (7), Religious Zionism–Zehut (6), Ra'am (5). Below threshold: Amcha Yisrael (2.5%), Reservists–Economic (2.4%), Chareidi Public (0.5%).

The Channel 13 poll, conducted by HaMidgam, Stat-Net, Project HaMidgam and Askaria, gives: Yashar (22), Likud (19), Yachad (14), Democrats (10), Joint List (9), United Torah Judaism (8), Yisrael Beiteinu (8), Religious Zionism–Zehut (8), Otzma Yehudit (8), Shas (7), Ra'am (7). Below threshold: Amcha Yisrael (3.1%), Reservists–Economic (3.0%), Chareidi Public (1.3%).

A separate i24NEWS poll by Direct Polls presents a different picture: Likud (26), Yashar (21), Yachad (12), Joint List (9), Otzma Yehudit (8), Shas (8), Democrats (8), United Torah Judaism (7), Religious Zionism–Zehut (6), Yisrael Beiteinu (6), Ra'am (5), Amcha Yisrael (4). Below threshold: Reservists–Economic (2.2%), Black Colour, Chareidi Public, Achi, Na'am L'Yisrael.

The actual results may differ substantially from the polls. Turnout levels, the distribution of votes to parties that fail to cross the threshold, and last-minute shifts could all reshape the political map in ways the surveys cannot predict.